This is exactly the reason why I allow charts to dictate rather than have my "logic" dictate. You can visit the boards of FNM or FRE and read the optimism on the "government agency" stocks as they went from 70 to 20 cents this past year. I remember when I was an institutional broker that I pleaded with one of my institutional clients not to buy Enron (because the chart was horrible) but they were optimistic with the research reports they read (which were based on misinformation about the company). i could go on and on but I won't because I know you have your own list.
The point I am trying to make is simply that I totally believe in optimism but one must also be "realistic" although you dislike that word.
I know people who were optimistic about the price of gold three years ago when it was $300 an ounce because they were realistic about where the dollar was going and where the economy was going. Does that make them a pessimist because the price of gold tripled due to these catastrophes? Warren Buffet, the richest man in the world, shorted the dollar because of things he saw. Was he a pessimist? If you read the article I posted (link) from Faber you will see why I am dubious about 2009 being a good year. But this is a situation where I would LOVE to be wrong, but I won't bet on it.
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