Replies to post #4616 on PEAK OIL - EPOCHAL EVENT OF OUR LIVES

[OptionMonster]

OPEC Unlikely to Change Quotas, Libyan Minister Says (Update1)

By Ayesha Daya and Ladane Nasseri

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, supplier of about 40 percent of the world's oil, probably will leave production quotas unchanged when it meets Sept. 9 even if crude markets look ``oversupplied,'' Libya's oil minister said.

``If things stay as they are, with oil at $115, $116 a barrel, I don't think much will be done in the meeting,'' Shokri Ghanem said in a telephone interview today from Tripoli. ``If the market continues as it is, well-supplied, if not oversupplied, no action is needed.''

Crude oil, down 22 percent since it touched a record July 11, closed Friday at $115.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Twelve nations in the 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have maintained an official output limit of 29.67 million barrels a day this year, and the group's meeting next month will review production levels before an increase in demand for winter heating fuel.

OPEC production surpassed its official quota as the group tried to temper a surge in prices, which still are up 57 percent in the past year and reached a peak of $147.27 a barrel on July 11. The 13 OPEC members produced 30.37 million barrels a day of oil in July, according to Bloomberg data, as the group's largest producer and de facto leader Saudi Arabia unilaterally raised output in June and July by 500,000 barrels a day.

Winter Demand

Oil prices may rise later this year because of the expected increase in demand during the Northern Hemisphere winter, Ghanem said. ``I don't think the economy will slow,'' he said. ``I think prices will go up this year as demand rises.''

The ``minimum'' suitable level for crude oil prices is $100 a barrel and prices will rise as demand increases during the winter months, Iran's Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said today, according to the ministry's official news agency.

``Iran hopes that OPEC will defend the balance of the market,'' Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's OPEC governor, told Bloomberg News in an interview in Tehran today. ``When oil prices are attractive, investment takes place, and if prices are on a decreasing course, investors will be hesitant.''

OPEC should leave production unchanged as there is plenty of oil in the market, Ecuador's Oil Minister Galo Chiriboga said Aug. 29. Venezuelan Oil and Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said the day before that the group shouldn't increase production and is studying whether it will recommend an output cut.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ayesha Daya in Dubai [e-mail]

Last Updated: August 31, 2008 10:14 EDT

[up-down]

If he only had Boone Picken's money

Then he could blitzkrieg the nations airwaves with commercials on how screwed we are going to be if we don't wake up out of out trance!



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[OptionMonster]

FACTBOX: Hurricane Gustav cuts U.S. oil, gas, threatens commods
Mon Sep 1, 2008 3:45am BST

http://uk.reuters.com/article/wtMostRead/idUKN3047239520080901

(Reuters) - Hurricane Gustav is first big storm threat to U.S. Gulf of Mexico energy and port infrastructure since Katrina and Rita in 2005.

The Gulf accounts for 25 percent of U.S. oil output and 15 percent of its natural gas production. More than a third of U.S. refining capacity is on the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Gustav is expected to make landfall on Monday near New Orleans, a big port handling raw material and foodstuffs. The Port of South Louisiana is the largest U.S. port in tonnes handled.

Katrina and Rita were Category 5 storms, the top of the hurricane intensity scale. Katrina hit New Orleans in August 2005. Rita hit near the Texas-Louisiana line that September.

Gustav was expected to come ashore as early as Monday on the Gulf Coast as at least a Category 3, though it was weaker on Sunday than when it crossed Cuba on Saturday.

---- IMPACT OF GUSTAV ON ENERGY SECTOR SO FAR ----

- The U.S. Minerals Management Service said on Sunday 1.25 million of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production (96.3 percent) and 6.1 billion of 7.4 billion cubic feet per day of gas (Bcfd) production (82.3 percent) had been shut in anticipation of Gustav. The figures were up from 76.8 percent of oil and 37.2 percent of gas on Saturday.

- MMS said personnel had been evacuated from 518 of 717 manned production platforms (72.3 percent), up from 223, and 86 of 121 drilling rigs (71.1 percent) in the Gulf, up from 45.

- NYMEX crude oil surged more than $2 a barrel to more than $117 a barrel in early electronic trading on Sunday, before paring its gains. Petroleum product prices also rose.

- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency waived summer blend requirements in Louisiana to ease gasoline supply.

- Louisiana Offshore Oil Port stopped unloading ships Saturday and shut flows from storage Sunday.

- Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be tapped, if necessary, the U.S. Department of Energy said.

---- OFFSHORE PRODUCTION IMPACTS ----

- Apache Corp said it shut 52,550 bpd of oil and 276 mmcfd of gas and evacuated 938 personnel.

- Shell Oil Co, largest Gulf producer, shut all 510,000 bpd oil equivalent and withdrew all 1,300 workers.

- Exxon Mobil shuts 28,000 bpd oil and 180 mmcfd gas and evacuated.

- Anadarko shut 150,000 bpoe and removed workers.

- Major firms BP Plc and Chevron shut production and evacuated personnel.



- Others including Petrobras and Marathon cut output and evacuated.

---- REFINERIES SHUT ----

- Exxon Mobil's 193,000 bpd joint-venture Chalmette, Louisiana.

- Murphy's 120,000 bpd Meraux, Louisiana.

- ConocoPhillips' Lake Charles and Alliance, Louisiana, total 485,000 bpd.

- Motiva's 236,000 bpd Norco, Louisiana.

- Marathon's 250,000 bpd Garyville, Louisiana.

- Calcasieu 80,000 bpd Lake Charles



- Valero 250,000 bpd St. Charles

---- REFINERY PRODUCTION CUTS ----

- Motiva's 235,000 bpd Convent plant not producing, but on standby for quick restart. Its 285,000 bpd Port Arthur plant at minimum rates.

- Valero Energy Corp 295,000 bpd Port Arthur, Texas; 130,000 bpd Houston and 245,000 bpd Texas City, Texas, refineries on reduced runs.

- Citgo's 430,000 bpd Lake Charles at half capacity

- Exxon Baton Rouge 503,000 bpd at half capacity.

- Exxon Baytown 567,000 bpd and 349,000 bpd Beaumont at reduced rates.

- Kinder Morgan said its Plantation products pipeline would keep operating long as possible, restart as soon as possible.

- Operator of Henry Hub, the major south Louisiana pipeline junction for natural gas, shut down Sunday.

- Gas pipeline operator Enbridge stopped taking production Saturday on systems with 6.7 Bcfd capacity.

- El Paso Corp said its Tennessee and Southern Natural gas pipelines saw throughput cuts totaling 637 mmcfd.

---- SHIPPING IMPACTS OF GUSTAV ---

- Houston Ship Channel closed to inbound traffic at midnight Sunday (1:00 a.m. Monday EDT).

- River pilots said Mississippi River traffic at New Orleans halted inbound at noon (1:00 EDT) Saturday, outbound as of 6 p.m. central U.S. time (7:00 p.m. EDT).

- Pilots halt traffic at Lake Charles Sunday.

- Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, halted Sunday

There was near total shutdown of Gulf oil and gas output at that time, 1.5 million bpd of oil and 10 Bcfd of gas.

- Twenty-nine percent of U.S. refining capacity was shut at peak.

- Winds and waves destroyed 124 platforms and damaged about 50 others, damaged or wrecked 535 pipeline segments and sank or set adrift 28 drilling rigs, MMS said.

(Reporting by Bruce Nichols, Erwin Seba, Chris Kelly and Marcy Nicholson; Editing by Anthony Boadle)