EF-The massive amount of rain we've recieved in Iowa has affected many roads and railroads. There was a major rail bridge washed out in Cedar Rapids, which is a major draw for corn. (ADM, Bunge, and General Mills have plants there.) I'm not sure if that bridge will affect these companies for sure, but I'd bet that it will in some way. Locally, we've got a lot of road work on bridges and road surfaces, but nothing that will affect our harvest.
The issue of replanting is complacated, due to different types of insurance policies and when farmers can finally replant crops. Most good farmers in the area are saying that its too late now to replant corn, but the beans can still make an avg. yield with some good weather. Frost is the major worry, when planting corn this late. (Turns the corn to mush.) Most farmers want to plant something to at least control the weed growth in fields. The supply of replant beans is supposed to be fine, according to the major seed companies.
I've heard rumors that there might be shortages of Roundup this summer. My supplier told me that if a farmer hasn't prepaid for it, they could be in for problems. There are many corn acres around here that are totally "naked", meaning with no pre-emerge herbicide, and no nitrogen applied. (They plan to sidedress the N) This cost saving technique will cost these farmers greatly this year. The naked acres stand out as they are extremely yellow and weedy. The forecast for central Iowa has improved, but we continue to have "pop up" thunderstorms fairly regularly. IF the farmers can get into the fields there will be A LOT of sidedressing of liquid N, as nearly every field has had major losses of N due to excessive rainfall. We rarely see sidedressing of anhydrous ammonia in our area.
I live in an area that produces around 2 million hogs within a 60 mile radius. I haven't noticed ANY of the hog barns empty, but I'm hearing that producers are starting to cut their replacement gilts 25-50%. So I'm guessing that the recent run up in corn will finally start to begin the rationing process within the livestock sector. Its been slow to start as the large hog operations like Smithfield have been making up for the losses on the hog side at the retail meat counter.
I'm betting that ethanol will continue to rise in price as well as the by-product DDG's. With the price of oil and grain, these products will look like a bargin to people. E85 is now priced $1 less at the pump than E10. It finally pays to burn E85.
I'm worried that the supply of corn will be extremely low as drown out and prevented planting numbers are starting to climb to as much as 15% of Iowa, according to multiple sources. I'm considering hiring a pilot to take me up to survey the damage from the air next week. I'll take some pics and try to post them if I do, but as most farmers around here are saying, "the damage has already been done."
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