"KNOW how much oil"......I have the impression that very sophisticated 3-D seismic analysis software provides far more insight than commonly known. First, the cost of utilizing this software (and the supercomputing time to run it) precludes all but the very biggest of major oil companies from using it. Second, much of the deeper (pun!) analytical software is developed in-house at big oil and is held very proprietarily. Third, since this is big oil, they don't just run an analysis based on curiosity, "I wonder what the JDZ looks like?" Instead, efforts must align with strategic business plans. When one looks at the global picture, there are likely a lot of places currently more attractive than the GoG. If one believes in even part of the Peak Oil theory it is to their advantage to "bank" their discovery knowledge, should they develop such. They are not going to lose any future money. And, of course, they are going to "tight hole" their analyzed seismic information for a vast number of competitive reasons.
So, we shareholders don't Know what they Know, whatever they do Know. And until we drill, we don't Know for sure, and when we drill, we may Know some. But, basically we shareholders are a tiny boat adrift on a sea of ignorance and hope of finding shore is also tiny. Bitch all we want, but, .... get used to it!
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