Why would those who know that "the trend is your friend" make some Herculean effort to buck it?
You need to read the book "Liar's Poker" about the mindset of these folks. The title says it all - ego, ego, ego.
And note that it may well be easier to force the market past an inflection point (if you have the right assets) than it is to predict the random movements of the market. An interesting academic question.
BTW - If you Liar's Poker doesn't convince you try listening to Cramer's stories. And if you want more Wall Street insider tales I'll make you a list. Bottom line - it is irrefutable that it happens. What surprises me is that there aren't some institutions that take advantage of this market inefficiency and steel the stupid money they put down based upon ego.
PS - "The trend is your friend" is sooooooo disproven as to be beyond dispute for any timeframes less than about a year or two.
<Why would those who know that "the trend is your friend" make some Herculean effort to buck it?>
On a random channel flipping many years ago, I saw a professional gambler teaching a class on how to play roulette. He actually said that the right way to play the colors is to always bet on the same color that just showed. Is this what you mean by "the trend is your friend"?
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