Replies to post #216077 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[SantaCruz]

Do you have a number on the Naz (dow whatever) that says "the bear is back? 1500 or 1640? TIA

[nancy2]

Zeev,

<<and the Naz Trin did not even close above 1.0, indicating stealth buying out there>>

you may want to look at the actual advance volumes vs decline volumes - because by nature of the formula to calculate TRIN, if both decline issues and VOLUMES outnumber advance issues and VOLUMES, the TRIN will be very benign looking.

the examples would be during the big down days after 9/11, the TRIN never went above 1.2 or 1.3. That was then I tried to find out why and realize the math calculation nature.

The formula for the Arms Index is:

(Advancing Issues / Declining Issues) / (Advancing Volume / Declining Volume)

http://www.paritech.com/education/technical/custom/indicators/arms.asp

today's numbers :
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 845 (24%) 716 (21%)
Declines 2472 (71%) 2449 (73%)
Unchanged 160 (4%) 166 (4%)


Up Vol* 197 (11%) 565 (26%)
Down Vol* 1444 (87%) 1524 (70%)
Unch. Vol* 10 (0%) 70 (3%)

The down volumes outnumber up volumes just slightly below that ratio as the down issues outnumber up issues, hence your TRIN on comp is a benign reading.

[phill]

Thanks, Zeev. I hope you're as accurate as you've been recently. I'm getting pretty long this week.

regards,

phill