kpf, Re: WRT to elmer, i sure hope he will be continued to be proven wrong with his hypothesis that AMD will fail to deliver on the manufacturing side (again) with K8.
My view is simply that investors need to be pragmatic about the risks involved, and not assume that they can ramp up K8 as fast as their roadmaps indicate. The positive thing to keep in mind is that AMD *is* getting the design wins, including the important high volume ones. The counter-point is that this is on a mature 130nm process, and SOI caused AMD a number of problems through 2002 and most of 2003. We do not yet know what problems may manifest at the 90nm node, though some people I have spoken to seem to think that this node will be easier for AMD, once they reach certain milestones. I think this should be a key focus for investors, because of the cost savings and smaller die size, which will allow AMD to ramp volumes and drive towards profitability. It's nice for AMD to be in the performance competitive arena this year, as well as having some unique advantages, such as lower power and next generation interconnects, but I wouldn't count Intel out of the race. They seem to be defeating AMD's advantages one by one, with the introduction of x86-64 to their support of the NX instruction later in the year, and I'm sure other announcements will follow. And if you guys are right about Intel's problem being with the 90nm process, that means they have the potential to really turn things around in the short term if they fix their issues. Low power Nocona parts are a definite possibility.
Having said all this, I think AMD is in an excellent position, and I continue to invest heavily in them. I'd like to see them outgrow Intel this year, though I am aware that things can just as easily go the other way.
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