Replies to post #27560 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[kpf]

wmbw

My view is simply that investors need to be pragmatic about the risks involved, and not assume that they can ramp up K8 as fast as their roadmaps indicate

Sure. However, I would be neither surprised nor disappointed if 90nm would slip another quarter (or even two) for the following reasons:
1. I would expect 130nm beyond the scope of this year - no performance penalty.
2. It could even be favorable to run a mature 130nm a couple of months longer if yields are fine with it and if 90nm-process is not mature enough (yield- and/or designwise) to leverage economic effects from smaller dies.

But then, considering AMD had AO Silicon in November last year, volume ramps in the third quarter seem to be feasible if no major setbacks occur. Actually, for AMD which was usually forced to ramp immature processes for competitive reasons, this is unusually comfortable timeframe to be at volume. In essence, AMD will be able to choose when it is favorable to migrate within some six months-window just from its own processes and not for competitive pressure from Santa Clara. As I said, unusually. Would think this will benefit Gross Margins couple of points.

...Intel's problem being with the 90nm process, that means they have the potential to really turn things around in the short term if they fix their issues Intel's problem being with the 90nm process, that means they have the potential to really turn things around in the short term if they fix their issues

That would depend on the issues. Talking about leakage: If it is material-related, it is a matter of luck if they find some other material and still a matter of time to implement it processwise. If it is transistor-geometry-related, oh boy, no short term fix then. So, what you say is possible, but completely unpredictable for me.

Low power Nocona parts are a definite possibility.

I cannot argue against it, as you neither post what low power would be not specify a timeframe when that would be.

From the comments made above it is still possible, but not exactly highly probable we see Low Power Noconas anytime soon.

K.