Replies to post #26205 on Traders Cooperative

[AD]

Joe you are the darndest due dilligence man I know. Fascinating.

I'm sure there are market journalists who would address this, ya just have to find the right person, or better yet, editor.

But then, worrisome as the facts are, noone wants another worry, so it gets ignored. Afterall, everything is humming along, happy days are here!

[See Shasta]

Joe, I thought I would have a little fun again writing a call on my small TIE position. I was way early! I went out to Sept though, so who knows what can happen by then. Did you ever buy back in?

[marketmaven]

Joe, Program trading closer to 85%, thru 3rd parties

Great postings - When do the wheels fall off this farce?

Joe, were you aware that the USS Eisenhower carrier group NEVER left the Persian Gulf in Feb when it was "relieved". More data suggests that the recent Cheney visit tees this attack up.
INSANE? Agreed...

Force Protection-FRPT Army expected to ask for 17K MRAPs@CEUT
Unterberg highlights a story in Army Times that says the Army is expected to ask for $9B to purchase 9K MRAPs in FY08 and additional money to purchase 8.7K in FY09. CEUT believes this provides excellent visibility for FRPT through 2009 and they expect shares to trade higher.

http://www.intelcenter.com/
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070512/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_us_deaths_6

Wow Don, An EXCELLENT POST too- Can we elect RON PAUL?

Posted by: AD
In reply to: None
Date:5/11/2007 8:02:31 AM
Post #of 26219

Just think: Yesterday, the non-thinking wallstreet whores were in love
with "the fed". The market just couldn't get enough Bernanke-speak.
Stocks soared on the "news" that "the fed" was not going to raise
rates.

Oh, sure, the economy was "moderating", but, overall things were just
great: No inflation, no spillover from housing to the rest of the
economy, and a strong, "resilient" consumer to prop it all up. Hey,
who knows, maybe things will be bad enough to lower rates but not bad
enough to stop the bull market from charging ahead. You know, like
that "goldilocks scenario" (greatest story never told - Larry Kudlow)
where things are not too hot and not too cold but cold enough to lower
rates but not...

Uh, right.

The word I used last night was, BULLSHIT. And, what do you know?
Today we find out that it was all BULLSHIT.

And, by "we find out", I mean, "Mainstream wallstreet and their shills
in the press reported to you the very, most basic, truths that I told
you about a year ago."

Furthermore, despite what the likes of Jim Cramer, Larry Kudlow and
the other characters on the comedy network, CNBC, tell you, "the fed"
can't lower rates to save this economy. Lowering rates would put
inflation into a tailspin and drive the value of the dollar into the
ground. Raising rates will push the housing market over the edge ,
and that won't work either. (Where it needs to go, by the way. See,
it's about time people who can't afford things are encouraged NOT TO
BORROW MONEY TO USE THEM. I can't think of any economy, on any scale,
that would be strong based on numbskulls who just borrow and give away
what they borrowed just for the pleasure of using plastic stuff
imported from their largest competitor. In my house, that's how I
play "Monopoly", except, I'm the one forcing people to mortgage their
properties to pay ME. )

Folks, the reason "the fed" keeps "not raising" or "not lowering"
rates is that either way will be a disaster. I vote, by the way, to
get rid of the outlaws in charge of our money, but since that won't
happen, I'll just try to stay liquid and out of debt.

But, I digress...

Before I continue, let me apologize for my use of the word,
"bullshit". It's tough for me to use that word. And, I'm not being
funny here, I'm serious. But, darn it! I don't know what else to say
at this point. The lies are now so outlandish, the yarns spun are so
ridiculous, and the stories-du-jour used to drive people into stocks
are so transparently fraudulent that I felt the one word which summed
it all up was, well, you know.

What "we learned" today was that the consumer ain't buying stuff.
That strong, robust, resilient "consumer" is not consuming his (or
her) share of swill these days. And, it's a problem.

The problem is that mainstream wallstreet and the media whores who
service them, told you that beyond all problems in the US economy, the
"resilient consumer" would just keep on spendin'. And, that would
prop it all up.

Now we know (well, I've been IN THE KNOW for a year on this) that the
the consumer is tapped out. We know this because:

1) Retail sales are down. You got that "news" today. Although, I
TOLD YOU THAT months ago. Heck, Circuit City famously told you that
when they said people weren't buying those big-screen TVS. (Remember
this was supposed to be the "year of the flat-panel"?)

2) Housing sales are down. For the first time in 40 years, median
home prices will be down for an entire year. This is huge. This
means that all that "wealth" "created" in the housing bubble is GONE.
And, gone with it is the ability for all the lemmings across America
to head to their local ATM - er, I mean the local mortgage company to
refinance their home - and spend - er, I mean borrow money they don't
have and then blow it on things for which there is no return on their
money, yet they'll have to repay that money plus interest.

3) Auto sales are down. WAY down.

4) And, Credit card debt is WAY up. One article I read called the
recent increase in credit card debt, "blistering". The bottom line is
this: Credit card debt is BEYOND PRE-CHRISTMAS LEVELS. And, Christmas
doesn't come in June.

It's that last part which is key to the whole problem. If the
"consumer" has skyrocketing debt on their credit cards, but retail
sales are down, that means either:

A) The consumer is borrowing money to pay back debts they didn't have
the money to pay already,

B) The number of sales are down but the price per sale is up, but not
enough to push sales into profitability, or...

C) BOTH "A" and "B".

My vote is that "C" is the right answer. Prices are up on things that
"consumers" need to "consume" (gas, rent, food, etc), and the
"consumer" is having to put that stuff - not the plastic crap from
China - on their credit cards.

What is more important is this concept: Housing sales are down. The
entire housing sector is in bad shape. This means that people are not
able to use their homes like ATM machines. This means - no extra
money to flow in the market to buy stocks. This means that if you are
waiting for the consumer to jump back in, you better hope that housing
comes back. But, that won't be good enough. Why? Because all the
debt the "resilient consumer" is racking up now will have to be paid
FIRST.

Look, inflation is up. Debt is WAY UP. The dollar is weak. Our
trade deficit is WAY UP. Job growth continues to slow down.... Etc.

What part of this picture includes "goldilocks"?

I suggest you hang on to your QID and DXD. Be patient, and GET OUT OF
YOUR DOW AND NASDAQ STOCKS. (Like I told you to do last Monday
night...)

Their will be more "surprises" ahead with the economy. You will want
to be "in the know" and as liquid as possible to avoid the sorrow that
others will feel when they get their surprise.

Sincerely,
Don Harrold

[basserdan]

>>>Program trading came in at 35% last week. Of course we know it was really twice that at 70%.<<<

Then there is this.....


The secret stock market
'Dark pools' and other new-age exchanges rewrite the rules, under the radar

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid={11EB6EC9-6D71-43C9-ADD2-59C6B9E3C5D1}