Replies to post #139923 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[julesg]

re: If WAVX's software is no different from the others out there and so easily duplictated how come Dell, Seagate, Intel, Gateway and 5 out of 6 TPM providers are paying WAVX for it?

Possibly because it is not worth the cost and resources to do it internally. At least, judging by the financials of who decided to devote the cost and resources to same.

[cygnuscap]

When I look for differentiated businesses I ideally look for:

-patented technologies
-businesses protected by scale or scope
-unique products/designs that can't be replicated easily


Typically, these criteria are hard to find, especially in technology. An innovation is made, a number of competitors quickly follow, prices come down and margins fall.

In Wave's case not only is there a question of market size, but of value creation. A centralized password management system is really not that complex a piece of software. The TPM itself is complex, but that's a standard -- managing the admin and back-up of the password for TPM or other add on utilities is fairly low value or easily replicated by anyone who saw enough of a market there to mess with it. Right now the market seems to be about ~$800K/quarter.

Again, everyone is entitled to their own opinion about the growth rate, Wave's share of that market and the ulitmate profitability on that share. I don't see it. And the posts trying to "out" me are silly. I'm personally short this stock and my comments are my own, not my employers. I make long and short investments both as my profession and for my own account. If you want to call me and debate Wave as investment feel free -- my cell is 917-407-7971. Otherwise, I'll try to stick to factual debate and would appreciate not being bullied or harassed for my projections of Wave's future value.