Replies to post #1498 on Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, The Middle East mayhem is the biggest problem right now. The US media is trying to play up the increase in US unemployment as the cause for this sudden global stock market meltdown, while ignoring the Middle East lunacy. But objectively, it looks like Netanyahu has decided to 'go for it', and try to force the 'US bombs Iran' scenario.

Several factors at work -- Iran is reportedly very close to getting a nuclear weapon, or may already have one, so Netanyahu is desperate and in a race against time. He tried to gin up the 'US bombs Iran' scenario back in April, but Biden refused, forcing Netanyahu to pin his hopes on 2025 and a Rep administration full of Neocons. However, recent events have changed his analysis --> the Trump assassination attempt, and Biden dropping out of the race. Odds have increased that Trump might be gone, therefore no Rep administration is coming. With Biden, Netanyahu & Co at least has some blackmailing leverage (the VP payola), but with his replacement Harris, he won't have that leverage. So out of desperation Netanyahu decides to 'go for it' now.

The big questions are - 1) will Iran take the bait and retaliate big against Israel / US interests, and then - 2) will Biden finally go along with the 'US bombs Iran' scheme? Netanyahu has provided the provocations, so now the ball is in Iran's court, and we should see their response sometime this weekend.

Wildcards include the fact that Iran has only limited control over what its so-called 'proxies' do (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, etc). We already know that Hamas has received funding from Israel for many years (see the NY Times article), with many of its top leadership bought off by bribes funneled through Qatar. The Houthis have long been suspected of being a quasi US/West vehicle used to foment regional trouble against the Saudis, blamed on Iran, and thus driving a perpetual wedge between the Saudis and Iran. We also know ISIS has been supported by the US/West, as was the Muslim Brotherhood by the British in earlier periods. So just because Iran wants to avoid the 'US bombs Iran' scenario, it doesn't mean their 'proxies' won't do something massive to force the US into a major war with Iran. What would it take? A US naval ship getting hit in the region would do it.

But who knows. Hopefully Biden refuses to take the bait, as do the Iranians, and things can cool down again, as happened in April. Then Israel calls for elections to replace Netanyahu, and Benny Gantz is elected and some sanity returns. In the US, Trump is elected and ends the madness in Ukraine. WW 3 is averted, and the world can return to some semblance of normal. This could just be wishful thinking though.




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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Here's a recent interview with Whitney Webb (below). She details the extensive Peter Thiel connections to JD Vance and also to Trump. It's hard to deny her conclusion that US politics has long been a controlled 'Uni-Party' -


(interview starts ~ 9:00)

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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> miners get taken down with the rest of the market <<

Yes, that also happened to the miners during the 2008 and 2020 stock market meltdowns, with bullion dropping too, so neither were a good hedge in the short term. though they turned around fast during the recovery phase.

Btw, I picked up a little more SPY this morning to take advantage of the relative bargains, but am leery since a lot could happen over the weekend and next week. 'US bombs Iran' is a real possibility, but will depend on how far Netanyahu & Co can push things. Imo, Biden needs to tell Bibi to f**** off.



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[gfp927z]

Acurx - Luci interview -

The odds appear good for a partnership deal fairly soon, I'm figuring between now and the end of the year. Should be interesting -

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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Here's an interesting theory on the dramatic change in the narrative on the economy. Over several days, the narrative instantly went from 'dovish soft landing' to a 'scary hard landing'. The timing of this was sudden and dramatic, and seems suspicious.

One explanation for the sudden reversal would be that the Fed / 'powers that be' are sending an unambiguous message to Biden & Co that they better go along with something that is approaching (US Bombs Iran scenario?), or else the Fedsters will tank the stock market and scare the hell out of the voters, thus destroying the Dem's chances in the election.

Ostensibly, the recent economic / unemployment data was responsible for the abrupt change in Wall Street sentiment (along with the deteriorating Middle East situation). But as we know, the data / numbers can easily be cooked to show anything they want, therefore they (powers that be) can tank the markets anytime they want. Remember the 2015 'Flash Crash' that hit the market the week the US Congress was voting on the Audit the Fed legislation? The market mysteriously dropped 1000 points, scaring the hell out of everyone, and Congress promptly watered down the bill.

Anyway, this has a similar feel to it. I follow the main financial articles most every day, and the sudden shift from 'kumbaya' to 'the ship is sinking' was unreal. The UK articles were especially strange, using terms like a US economic 'collapse', when the day before everything was rosy. The whole thing seems fishy imo. (Or maybe I should go back on my meds), lol..



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[gfp927z]

Looks like another ugly week ahead for stocks. Hopefully gold will act like the hedge it's supposed to be. Cash is probably the best place overall right now, until the bottom finally arrives. I see Buffett raised a ton more cash in the last quarter. In Q1 and Q2 he reduced his huge Apple position by a whopping 55%, so is sitting on a massive $277 billion in cash to deploy as the bargains appear.

I've got a real bad feeling about this Middle East situation. Increasingly it appears Netanyahu has some 'loose screws' in his head. How we ever allowed Israel to get its own nuclear arsenal is beyond me. JFK was insisting on inspections of their Dimona facility around the time of his assassination. The only thing scarier than a nuclear armed N. Korea or Iran is an unhinged Israeli leader with nukes. N. Korea and Iran know they would be obliterated by the US if they used their nukes, but if Israel uses theirs, they know the US would do nothing. Israel reportedly has hundreds of nuclear weapons. Threatening to nuke Tehran is the one sure-fire way that Netanyahu could force the US / Biden into the 'US bombs Iran' scenario.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel



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