Replies to post #185917 on Lightwave Logic Inc (LWLG)

[redspinelpinktopaz]

And #8: how long does it take for CEO Michael Lebby to know your first seven, and not say he might get a deal done before year end, and not get one done in the first quarter of 2024?

[frobinso]

This is a great post, zdog.

As an investor, as long as I see them marching closer to a potential volume ramp with a foundry - following this less capital intensive strategy they have wisely been pursuing then I plan to display patience. I also plan to attend the ASM this year to pick up what information I am able to directly and to meet and learn from others attending that work in the industry. These are excellent points that your raise, and I see deadlines adjusted all the time using Agile project methodology. I am sure these adjustments in bringing new processes into a production line face changes, adjustments, delays, and additional iterations as needed along the way.

[tedpeele]

This is what I don't believe is true:

Dr. Lebby tells us his best guess

He KNOWS the hurdles can take years, but gives wildly optimistic timeliness for goals such as

1. first tech license transfer (by May 2023!)
2. multiple deals (maybe by year end 2023!)
3. first transceivers (by year end 2024!)

You think those were/are his "best guess"? Swampland for sale. Many clues along the way for people to wake up - the biggest of all being the now infamous "commercial deal" announced on the day of the ASM.

Carrots on sticks IMO while he enjoys a lucrative lifestyle and climbs the ladder of status that some in the industry find puzzling.

Look closely:

..

[Lurker3]

To answer all your questions. Minimal 20 years 🤣🤣🤣

[LOVELWLG]

Lebby doesn't even know the answers to those questions by the missed timelines he keeps giving. 4 months have passed since his last swing and miss. What information did he use to put out a press release saying he would close deals by the end of December. He must have felt very confident to put out a official press release. Dont keep setting investors expectations and keep dropping the ball. That's really the problem people have with management over the years. Went through it with Marcelli now Lebby.

[DruidElf44]

These are valid questions, let me try to add some color:
1) Depends what you mean by "PDK" - the key part is establishing the end-to-end process flow, incl. FEOL, BEOL, back-end, packaging. As far as components go, leverage what the foundry offers as much as possible and optimize only the parts where you differentiate (i.e., the modulators). The messaging indicates that this stage was completed some time ago. Offering an open PDK to 3rd parties should come after you've proven out the technology in terms of capabilities (function, performance) and reliability and should not gate initial production of samples.
2) Manufacturing probably 4-6 months, testing 1 month, a good chunk of which is packaging for testing, rather than testing itself. Test development runs in parallel with design and manufacturing.
3) This should really run in parallel with all of the above, and relationships with potential takers presumably exist already.
4) Assuming that the customer has resources allocated, maybe another month or two for testing on their side for PIC-level testing. Integration into a module will take longer, maybe 3-4 months. The long pole in the test is qualification, which can take 6-9 months.
5) It's less the negotiation of the contract, but more the following factors:
- How often do you have to iterate on the above steps before you get it right?
- Is your supply chain capable of producing the volumes required, with sufficient yields to meet cost targets? This needs to be front and center from the start - 200mm should be good though for this market.

One challenge I see is in integration - these PICs are likely not reflow compatible as the reflow temperature exceeds the polymer's decomposition temperature.

[Nrdc92]

What you miss with your sarcastic/rhetorical questions, Z, is that management has been telling us for twenty years that: 1. they’re working with tier ones; 2. that revenue is imminent; 3. that revenue projections are imminent.

I’ll concede that the road to commercialization is complex. However, what you and the other denialist posters here refuse to do is ever levy any criticism against management. Serial apologists who seem to be uninterested in asking hard questions and forcing management to answer those questions.

You seem less like investors and more like a bunch of teenage girls wetting their panties at a boy band concert.