Replies to post #1174 on Mining Sector Ideas

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Goldman recently came out bullish on gold (next post), so that's a factor, and another is that Wall Street often bases its decisions on TA / charts, and this big breakout is attracting attention. I figure numerous 'macro' factors are also at work, including the growing US debt bomb, the BRICS plans for their own gold linked currency to compete with the US dollar, etc. As we know, central banks have been piling into gold for years, so global demand grows and mining output has lagged.

So the 'stars + planets' are finally aligning to produce the big breakout. The professional 'gold bugs' are always bullish, and have their reputations and livelihoods wrapped up in the bullish side, via newsletters, book sales, etc. But it looks like gold's appeal is broadening, and some of the Bitcoin crowd might also be switching over to gold. Seeing gold being sold at Costco, and selling out within hours, may have also attracted some attention. And anyone who follows TA / charts couldn't miss the extremely bullish chart pattern that had developed.

Based on the charts, this move is probably just beginning. But as you said, the big question is when does the suppression mechanism kick in? If gold is allowed to run up too much it could reinforce an inflationary vibe and thus work against the Fed's goals. So we'll see how long the party lasts, but so far it's been fun :o)




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[gfp927z]

Goldman - >>> Gold’s 'record march higher set to continue,' Goldman says


Yahoo Finance

by Ines Ferré·Senior

March 25, 2024


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/golds-record-march-higher-set-to-continue-goldman-says-164325765.html#:~:text=Goldman%20Sachs%20analysts%20upgraded%20their,phase%2C%20barring%20any%20geopolitical%20surprise.


Gold’s roughly 8% month-to-date rally has room to grow with the precious metal poised to hit $2,300 an ounce by year-end, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

On Monday futures gained to trade as high as $2,182 an ounce. The precious metal is considered a safe haven during times of geopolitical tensions and when interest rates decrease. Last week, the Federal Reserve continued to signal that it would lower interest rates three times this year.

The Fed meeting “reinforced the market’s (and ours) expectations that three cuts are likely this year, lending renewed support to gold to test and surpass March’s earlier record high,” wrote a team of analysts led by Samantha Dart.

Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded their average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090 to $2,180 per ounce, targeting a move to $2,300 by the end of the year.

The analysts forecast gold prices in the near term will move toward another consolidation phase, barring any geopolitical surprise. However, “a substantive retracement lower will likely also be limited by resilience in physical buying channels,” wrote Dart, citing Chinese imports of the precious metal.

“Nonetheless, in the midterm we continue to hold a constructive view on gold underpinned by eventual Fed easing, which should crucially reactivate the largely dormant ETF buying,” wrote Dart.

Bullion's price increases have been disconnected from recent outflows seen in gold-related ETFs. Strategists believe investors have been rotating money into bitcoin ETFs as the token roared toward new highs earlier this month.

Central banks have been buying up gold at historic levels, helping to drive up demand over the past couple of years.

Adjusted for inflation, gold hit a record in 1980 when it hit $850 per ounce, which would equal almost $3,200 in today's dollars.

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[gfp927z]

Bigworld, >> silver <<

Silver also coming to life :o) Looking at the SLV chart, as with gold there is a quasi 12 year cup + handle (bullish), with the 3 year 'cup' having a quasi inverted head + shoulders (also bullish). It's much less classic than on the gold chart, but is easier to see now that silver is climbing. Also the 'neckline' on the silver chart is sloped, where gold's is flat and thus more 'classic'.

Anyway, looks like silver is playing catch up to gold. There is also a potential motivation for price suppression with silver, since it represents a key input cost for solar panels. Therefore keeping silver prices lower helps keep solar cost competitive with traditional types of energy. Not sure how much price suppression of silver has been going on in recent years, but like gold. it does seem to have peculiar 'smack downs' at times.



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