Replies to post #681428 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[attilathehunt]

Right on! Our day will come!

[StonkMaster]

Lovely post.

[User-840664]

Your post is not long enough and misleading enough... Do better, post a few hundred more paragraphs to distract people a bit more.

[TTsr]

Great comparison & even better perspective! TY

[skitahoe]

Great post Chiugray,

Of course the only way to really know the worth of NWBO is to continue and expand trials with its products. One extreme is that it only works in GBM and DCVax-Direct doesn't work at all. The other extreme is that both DCVax's work, and should be a part of the SOC in practically every solid cancer.

Aspirin has been around for over a century and they still find new ways to use it. I can imagine that 20 years from now they'll find new ways to use the DCVax's and new products to use in combination with it to make the treatment more effective. I suspect that it will take the better part of a decade for all the results on trials that are initiated in the next couple years to be completed and evaluated, but when approved, both DCVax-L and Direct will be used off label based on anecdotal evidence that shows its benefits.

What does this mean wrt a buyout. To me it's saying that the longer the company waits, and the more they learn, the greater the price will be.

If LP sells before further trials have been done with DCVax-Direct it's likely that they buyer would be stealing the company, no matter how much they paid when compared to the earning potential of the products they're receiving.

Gary

[TheFollower]

Excellent post.
Thanks!

[ilovetech]

Chiugray - I remember telling my brother (board certified Hemo/Onc/Internist) about Kite and the BO price. He said, "it's pretty rare." "I might see two cases a year, if that."

Kite Pharma (Car-T) was sold to Gilead for $12B in 2017, had only a completed Phase 2 trial, only for relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL). Ignoring inflation, $12B today is roughly $10/sh for NWBO today.

[sentiment_stocks]

Loving your posts lately. :)

[Horseb4CarT]

Nicely done!

The FUDsters must be trying to figure how to respond to such a powerhouse positive, yet simple to comprehend, post!

[JMarv]

Nice thanks for sharing!

[abc1212]

Another great post Chiugray, thanks 💥

[hyperopia]

Chiu, I dunno about a “$10/share” value today, but maybe fairly soon. I think similar cell therapy companies like Kite and Juno, that were pre-revenue and pre-approval, had market caps of four or five billion before their buyouts, which is probably a reasonable value for Northwest Bio at this time. I think NWBO would probably be closer to that valuation if the stock had institutional investors and was trading on a national exchange, and not being manipulated on the OTC. The reason those companies were valued at $10-12B is because they were acquired at a premium; a price that also valued their future revenues. I think I’ve posted this before, but there’s an interesting article about Gilead’s acquisition of Kite and how that buyout price was achieved here.

There are many ways to value companies, and I think comparisons to similar companies is a fair method, however, I agree that the comparison of Kite to Northwest Bio begins to fall apart when considering the size of their respective markets, and their ability to capture it, which is why Kite’s buyout price is only a good starting point for Northwest Bio’s future value. It took Kite nearly 6 years to achieve $1.5B in annual sales. Northwest Bio’s future revenues are likely to be considerably higher than Kite’s, not only due to a much larger market, no competition, and DCVax’s ability to safely combine with many other agents, but also because Flaskworks’ automated manufacturing will allow much faster growth.

I think your argument here is solid, but it’s probably not enough to counter the continual manipulation of the stock as you suggest. Unfortunately, true demand for the stock is capped on the OTC since there are only retail buyers, and the price can be controlled with as little as a few million in capital. It seems that Northwest Bio understands and this, and doesn’t seem particularly concerned right now about the stock price or countering the false narratives like they used to, (except with the medical and scientific communities) while the stock trades on the OTC. I think this is all going to change in the near future though.

I think regulatory approval is the lynchpin which enables other events to occur, similar to the JAMA journal article finally providing validation of the science and trial (which allowed the lawsuit to be filed against the manipulators). Approval by the MHRA will provide further legitimacy of the science, and de-risk the company for critical investment by large investors and potentially a partner(s). And we know that Linda Powers has plans to list the company on a national exchange which will attract institutional investment, analyst coverage, publicity, and Northwest Bio will finally gain the value, and exposure that the science and company deserves.

[XenaLives]

Very comprehensive, thank you.