NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[Chiugray]

To counter the Short’s continual manipulation, I wanted to share my belief that NWBO’s intrinsic value is worth at least $10/share today at this pre-approval stage from an “at least” perspective. Here is my thinking.

Complexity
It is similar to early investors trying to figure out what Amazon was worth, and year after year “suddenly realizing” it was worth more.
- A new kind of book selling company,
- wait, it is e-commerce,
- wait, it is massive customer driven data personalization,
- wait, it is massive logistics and supply chain,
- wait, it is massive cloud computing with AWS,
- wait, it is massive AI and machine learning,
- wait, it is approaching $2T in market cap…

DCVax is a disruptive technology platform
It continually adapts by leveraging our immune system that is already forever adapting to new diseases. A possible scenario…
- A new drug for late-stage (GBM, malignant brain tumors)
- wait, it is for early-stage (non-toxic, ideal as prophylactic)
- wait, it is SOC for the entire cancer type
- wait, it is state-of-the-art, low-cost manufacturing of live cell therapies
- wait, it is a broad-spectrum cancer vaccine (for multiple cancers)
- wait, it is a modular therapy (to optimize and cure, DCVax base layer, add adjuvants from menu)
- wait, it is SOC for multiple cancers
- wait, it is anti-viral (vaccine for chronic viral conditions like long-covid, herpes, HIV)
- wait, it is approaching $2T in market cap…

Narrow example to illustrate relative size of realizable markets
Kite Pharma (Car-T) was sold to Gilead for $12B in 2017, had only a completed Phase 2 trial, only for relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma (LBCL). Ignoring inflation, $12B today is roughly $10/sh for NWBO today.

Kite for NHL drill down
- Based on Phase 2 clinical trial
- “Relapsed or refractory” means only for a subset % of a % of a % of cancer population
- LBCL is a subset of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (which is a subset of lymphomas)
- Relapsed refers to recurrent LBCL only (not for newly diagnosed)
- Refractory refers to 2nd line of treatment (for patients that did not respond to initial treatment or SOC)
- Only approved in USA
- Car-T is known for high toxicity risks

- Newly diagnosed LBCL in USA – 18K per year
- 30-40% of LBCL will need a 2nd line of treatment – 5K to 7K per year
https://www.kitepharma.com/news/press-releases/2023/12/us-fda-approves-label-update-for-kites-yescarta-car-tcell-therapy-to-include-overall-survival-data
- Calculation (per Bard, Yescarta has maybe 50% of LBCL) - ~3K patients

DCVax-L for GBM drill down
- Based on Phase 3 clinical trial (landmark success)
- MAA submitted in UK is to treat GBM (upside, all malignant gliomas)
- Both newly diagnosed and recurrent (all GBM)
- As SOC therapy (as the 1st line of treatment)
- Global clinical trial, means global markets (UK, USA, Germany/EU, and Canada)
- Efficacy, non-toxic, and immune memory
- Upside, anticipate off-label use in benign brain tumors

USA Brain Tumor statistics 2023
https://braintumor.org/brain-tumors/about-brain-tumors/brain-tumor-facts/
- Newly Diagnosed is 94K per year (28% GBM/malignant, 72% benign)
- Living with brain tumor is 1,000,000

To roughly extrapolate for the aggregate UK, Canada, and Germany/EU/EMA addressable markets, I count the cancer incident rates by country is approx 1.9X of USA.
https://www.wcrf.org/cancer-trends/global-cancer-data-by-country/

Comparing the two
NWBO should be worth multiple times more than Kite.
All is IMHO.