Yes the Lumentum acquisition was a bit of a reality check for me. Cloud Light has advanced SiPh technology, growing market share, 100+ patents, and over $200 million in revenue...and sold for 'only' $750 million.
For POET, I do think the future mostly hangs on the Light Bar and if successfully commercialized it should be a big business for POET. I have no doubts that the interposer will make its way into a handful of customers' devices, but at this point I have doubts about the uptake and especially so given that POET is making the entire transceiver module themselves for 800G+. 'Standard' silicon photonics manufacturing, packaging, and testing is very advanced and mature...and widespread. I believe it has taken a lead that will not be replaced. Luckily the pie is very large though.
Frankly I have doubts about the 75% cheaper claims, too. Ayar chose Lumentum and Sivers Photonics for their light sources. Why not POET? As of OFC earlier this year, I talked to a gentleman at Ayar Labs and he said they passed on POET. Why? He wouldn't tell me, but if I had to guess it was too early.
The biggest question I have here at this point is...is POET the exclusive light source supplier to Celestial AI? If so, awesome and that'll make me sleep better. I would hate to see Celestial announce another light source supplier. From a business perspective, I would understand if they get another supplier. But that would mess with my mind a bit.
The saving grace for my investment here is that since the volume is so low, if there's any new buying in the future the stock should rise quickly.
I hate to seem like a downer, but yea, I've lost that loving feeling too lol.
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