Replies to post #2493 on Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[willyw]

I have no crystal ball. I have to wait for results.
I do feel I have some cause to see success in efficacy and safety.

Hope you are right but I feel the clinical landscape has changed wrt endpoints.

That's one of my criticisms; You get an award for going from point A to a conclusion with seemingly no proof, very little support of your claims. You could be right but you seem to refuse to cite anything, show your work. You would have a better respected opinion (cause that seems like that's all you are offering) if could somehow explain or substantiate your claims.

Also, this ‘mortgage’ today means - no deal is in the works. They will go solo into phase 3.

Once again, an unsubstantiated opinion, but expressed as certainty.

For me the up front money secured by Mavyret agreement means that there is no money bottleneck. It puts ENTA in a stronger bargaining position if there were to be a partner. You don't want to be in a position where you are desperate to deal. (that's my opinion)

If we are talking about trading HCV sales (of which Enanta got a smallish sliver of annual sales) and trading them for owning a best in class covid drug I think it's a sound call.
Let me flip that script on you.
The fact they are borrowing against HCV profits shows a commitment to go forward.
If I were a potential partner I'd want to know the safety and efficacy and FDA stance on trials and approval. IF results are still blinded I'd be curious how one would make a deal, not knowing the strength of the hand.
You just seem to only see failure. I see potential improvements over Paxlovid, easier prescriptions, fewer rebounds, possible new labels for treatment.
I foresee that they want protect against other future potential deadly variants, but perhaps I'm wrong.
We won't have long to wait.

Much depends on the safety and efficacy, the phase 3 design and the path of covid.

In the USA we are at 1.11 million deaths divided by 333 million population (I'm fudging numbers to make the math more obvious- the CDC says 1,129,573 deaths) We are a small percentage of the world population and we comprised 1/6th of the fatalities. 1160 people per week are currently dying in the USA per the CDC. Death is NOT the only metric one should look at. (current US hospitalizations 7,540 per CDC). Long covid, medical debt, medical bankruptcies, lost production, supply line shortages; it goes on and on.
I don't see the need for a better treatment diminishing.

But that's just me