TempePhil - Given TGD's background, including an MBA and M&A experience, my personal view is that he is fully aware of the enormous value potential of Anavex and he will do everything he can to avoid a buyout until the company has been producing revenue for at least a few years. My rough financial model was with very conservative assumptions and if some of those assumptions improve in Anavex's favor, it makes a huge difference to the bottom line and the stock price. Again, based one million patients prescribed 2-73 in concert with a BP
partner, if the annual cost to the patient goes from the $3,600/yr. in my original model to $10,000/yr. ( I believe this amount would still be well received by politicians and Medicare ) and the split with the BP partner goes from 65%/35% to 50%/50% , the impact for Anavex is huge.
One million patients x $10,000/yr. = $10 billion, divided 50/50 yields $5 billion in gross revenue
to Anavex; then deduct $400 million for operating costs ( presently running at +/- $60 million/year ) , then take 30% for estimated taxes and you have net revenue of $3.22 billion or
$32.20/share based upon 100 million shares outstanding at the time. At my assumed PE ratio of 25 it equates to $805/share. And, that represents market penetration of only one million patients with a BP partner. So , I personally don't see TGD endorsing a sale in the $100-200
per share range.
jmvho
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