Replies to post #401191 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[georgejjl]

jmvho,

I agree your estimate is very very conservative given that there are approximately 44 million people worldwide including 6.5 million in the USA and 7.8 million in Europe with dementia.

Your estimate might be just 1/10 th or even 1/40 th of the true potential.

Good luck and GOD bless,

[falconer66a]

Future Anavex Metrics

jmvho, those estimated, future Anavex metrics are very much in line with my calculations.

I, too, to be conservative began the number crunching presuming that Anavex would sell its drug(s) to only one million patients each year. My number ranges were very similar to yours.

But in truth, I believe both of us are being overly conservative. Frankly, when blarcamesine gets FDA approval to be used to treat (or prevent) Alzheimer’s, it will be used to treat far more than one million patients each year. Authoritative sources state that at least six million Americans suffer from the disease. If so, we can multiply our totals by 6x.

That’s just for Alzheimer’s, just in the US. What about Parkinson’s disease dementia? I can’t find a reliable number on how many in the US have this particular form of Parkinson’s disease, but apparently a million or more have conventional Parkinson’s in the US.

Of course, Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease dementia are not confined to the US. Both diseases are global; but Anavex’s market will include the developed countries of the Western World, primarily those in North America and Europe. Revenues from blarcamesine sales outside of the US should at least equal domestic sales. So, multiply the revenue sums by 2x.

Understandably, people make good fun of the projected or anticipated eventual AVXL $1849 share price that appears on this message board. Right now, it’s good for some message board laughs and fun. But, in five years...?

[TempePhil]

jmvho, nice figuring! And to answer the final question....Given your $3.2B net/year, it would take round about 22 days to recoup the AA value of $100M. To my mind, that becomes inconsequential.