A large enough p2/3 trial. It was a gamble and i believe he doesn’t have appropriate data for approval. I know many will bash me again
It is not reasonable to think that a buyout would be much more than 3x multiple
So a partnership would be much less than that. Big advantage of partnership is less need for dilution. But these guys know avxl needs cash for phase 3. The cash infusion would already be dilutive because of loss of future revenue. The street hates avxl so there is no guarantee that we could realize full potential anyway. They may only put in 500 million for 50% of revenue…they are the bigger pharma and we just don’t have the cash.
Alternatively dilution would be milked by money nanagers…we could trade at 6! With dilution drop back to 4s and then need huge dilution. They can control the price
If you are long and roche succeeds you can hold roche and probably make 2-3x more if it succeeds but it will be 2-3+ years at least
Too many people here think we have more leverage than we do. Yet the price is under 10
Bivi was 3 bucks and now 14. Their phase 3 coming out in a few months. If they succeed it lessens our future market share even if we are also successful.
Point is financially you want to capitalize and leverage gains in multiple other areas
I for one hope they sell and 35-40 would be a great deal. If frrol is correct then most would be around 35 dollars. Still a lot better than 8.6
Guys.. I know we are frustrated.. TGD has said we will partner..
But don’t count on it..
With one country approval we are BP!
Avxl knows revenues for Rett Syndrome and cash from Voucher .. perhaps by mid 2023..
The whole Partnership thing may just be a flare to distract.. we don’t need a BP partner!
We are BP.. our price doesn’t show it and THAT is WHY! The market forces may only keep our MC down not our Data..
The Data will soon be irrefutable.. Within days.. Do you really need a Rep from BP to market a safe daily (nightly) drug that stops you from getting dementia? Helps you sleep better… Helps you see better.. Helps you socialize! Helps you want to do things! Helps you enjoy your life!
Do you need a fancy Rep to explain the sigma 1 ligand and Dextromethorphan?
I don’t think so.. I onindnof hope the BP partner thing Is smoke to try to minimize the MC attacks!
We are about to be the biggest BP there is..
Why would you share that power? Why would you share that control? Why would you share that $$$?
I could see a platform, whereby we offer to share $$$ with ALL BP who wish to resell Blarcamesine.. but who have no power over anything to do with access or decision making.
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