Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[peeved]

I think missling did not do

A large enough p2/3 trial. It was a gamble and i believe he doesn’t have appropriate data for approval. I know many will bash me again

It is not reasonable to think that a buyout would be much more than 3x multiple

So a partnership would be much less than that. Big advantage of partnership is less need for dilution. But these guys know avxl needs cash for phase 3. The cash infusion would already be dilutive because of loss of future revenue. The street hates avxl so there is no guarantee that we could realize full potential anyway. They may only put in 500 million for 50% of revenue…they are the bigger pharma and we just don’t have the cash.

Alternatively dilution would be milked by money nanagers…we could trade at 6! With dilution drop back to 4s and then need huge dilution. They can control the price

If you are long and roche succeeds you can hold roche and probably make 2-3x more if it succeeds but it will be 2-3+ years at least

Too many people here think we have more leverage than we do. Yet the price is under 10

Bivi was 3 bucks and now 14. Their phase 3 coming out in a few months. If they succeed it lessens our future market share even if we are also successful.

Point is financially you want to capitalize and leverage gains in multiple other areas

I for one hope they sell and 35-40 would be a great deal. If frrol is correct then most would be around 35 dollars. Still a lot better than 8.6