Replies to post #366613 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[crescentmotor]

I have the odds of Rett approval somewhere around 80%. I have PDD and AD closer to 50%

I am highly confident about Rett's and feel very good about PDD. I bought my original position based on the mid-stage trials for those two indications. I figured those two diseases would ultimately carry the day for me even with a disappointment in AD. But success in AD would result in a whole new cake being baked.

[RedShoulder]

Gator, I believe that PDD has the best odds for FDA approval since the Ph-2 trial data shows that over 90% on high dose improved (92%?). I give PDD on high dose a 90% chance for FDA approval because no other drug has ever improved PDD. The need is great and the drug is very safe. I think A2-73 is an outright win for PDD.

You Alzheimer low odds do not match the fact that in the PH-2 trial some reversed the disease and I know of 3 videos showing that, then some others did not decline and remained stable. I know it was a small trial, however that does not negate the fact no drug in history has had results showing some improved to a normal state and some became stable and did not decline.

Besides efficacy being excellent the drug is safe with no adverse events, and that carries a lot of weight with the FDA is considering approval.

I have the odds of Rett approval somewhere around 80%. I have PDD and AD closer to 50%, which is a nice improvement from the 15% I had it pegged in 2015 when it was still in P1.