Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL): There you go. Even longs are a slightly...

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Re: crescentmotor post# 366606

Monday, 07/18/2022 2:05:05 PM

Monday, July 18, 2022 2:05:05 PM

There you go. Even longs are a slightly reluctant to buy in right now. Me too, because the drop from $13 to $11 is fairly insignificant. It wasn't long ago this was at $7/share, and a lot of money I believe is on the sidelines right now.

Everyone clamoring for a PR announcing the completion of the trial is shortsighted. Odds are any pop in the share price will quickly retrace as has every other PR announcement. What matters is P3 data.

I believe that AVXL will be approved for Rett syndrome. There aren't many other treatments and anecdotal evidence supports that the drug works well enough to warrant approval. Whether insurance companies will cover the cost initially is another question I don't know the answer to.

I have the odds of Rett approval somewhere around 80%. I have PDD and AD closer to 50%, which is a nice improvement from the 15% I had it pegged in 2015 when it was still in P1.