"1. Anavex will have to issue a lot more shares to get to a point where it’s capable of mass-producing enough Blarcamesine to the entire US population." That's not in the cards. Missling has already said he would partner for AD and, more recently, PD. The partner would handle the upfront costs, as may be needed. (But keep in mind that the manufacturing costs will be quite low per pill, and the profits quite high, and we wouldn't ramp up overnight, anyway, and certainly not "to the entire US population.")
"2. Insurance companies aren’t going to pay $11k. That may be an appropriate out-of-pocket price but figure insurance companies negotiating to pay only 35% of that amount annually — they never pay “retail” price. And most patients will be old enough to qualify for Medicare — good luck getting the government to pay full price." We can't begin to estimate insurance coverage. Mostly, it will depend upon how much 2-73 would save insurers at the back end, and the results are definitely not in on that. However, if 2-73 works amazingly well, don't assume reimbursements will not be higher than normal. I have seen an estimate of $15-20K (not $56K) for a best case AD therapy, obviously to be split with a partner.
3. Not all US patients will receive Blarcamesine even if it does become the standard of care. It’s the United States — our healthcare system doesn’t provide for everyone equally. Of course that's true, but the AD and PD population is generally covered by Medicare. This puts you safely in the 6M+ patient range, which would increase as the years go by and the initial cohort stays on the medication (and lives longer) while succeeding cohorts take it up. Eventually you are talking real money, as Everett Dirksen used to say.
["4. If Anavex has an effective drug, expect a buyout offer that Dr. Missling accepts. At the very least expect a partnership for manufacturing and marketing costs." We know Missling will partner for the largest indications. As for a buyout, I would expect there's a good chance if/when we prove to have the goods, friendly or hostile, but for an enormous amount of money. No longs would be suffering.
"Point is that your formula is overly optimistic and the variables are not realistic. Put another way — there are lots of blockbuster drugs out there. How many lives have beta blockers saved over the years — look at those companies’ stock prices for comparison. Investors will be rewarded if AVXL has an effective and approved treatment, but not to the tune of $8000k/share. That’s way more absurd than the $1000/share nonsense being spewed back in 2015." AVXL is not an $8000 stock other than a best case scenario plus 20 years, but neither should its potential be limited to ordinary BP comps. Missling is much more ambitious than that, and the Sigma1 receptor platform is no ordinary thing.
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