Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

Please stop. If nothing else, talking about $8000 and fancy private jets and all these other caviar freaks will just jinx the stock. Remember the millionaire’s club talk last summer? How’s that working out.

A few comments:

1. Anavex will have to issue a lot more shares to get to a point where it’s capable of mass-producing enough Blarcamesine to the entire US population.

2. Insurance companies aren’t going to pay $11k. That may be an appropriate out-of-pocket price but figure insurance companies negotiating to pay only 35% of that amount annually — they never pay “retail” price. And most patients will be old enough to qualify for Medicare — good luck getting the government to pay full price.

3. Not all US patients will receive Blarcamesine even if it does become the standard of care. It’s the United States — our healthcare system doesn’t provide for everyone equally.

4. If Anavex has an effective drug, expect a buyout offer that Dr. Missling accepts. At the very least expect a partnership for manufacturing and marketing costs.

Point is that your formula is overly optimistic and the variables are not realistic. Put another way — there are lots of blockbuster drugs out there. How many lives have beta blockers saved over the years — look at those companies’ stock prices for comparison. Investors will be rewarded if AVXL has an effective and approved treatment, but not to the tune of $8000k/share. That’s way more absurd than the $1000/share nonsense being spewed back in 2015.