Replies to post #1995 on WONDERFUL WORLD OF WARRANTS

[ErnieBilco]

Great thoughts - The hardest part of trading warrants is knowing when to start scaling out but keeping enough JUST IN CASE shares to bring home bigger overall gains.

But - Like LMB - It can turn nasty before you even see it coming.

[bigbux1]

Totally agree with everything you said, sooo, let me rephrase it. Seems like a decent play, imo

[creede]

Yep. Well said.

Take it from someone who crapped out on LMB (left $80k on the table). Nothing is a no-brainer when you are dealing with a charging bull and warrants rapidly approaching the expiration date.

SD cannot afford a setback. There’s no time to recover. This is what happened to me in LMB — they had a bad quarter (which is something I’m certainly not worried about here).

I had thought about the dilution factor, but also read it’s insignificant unless the stock moves waay above the Strike Price — which is when management will typically give investors 30 days to convert.

Another type of no-brainer, and perhaps what bigbux was alluding to, is the high probability of trading these warrants at these prices.

If you catch them at BID there’s very good chance you double your money in the coming weeks or sell 1/2 and ride free.

SD warrants are already 60% to the strike price. Imo they are worth at least .30 each right now.

And finally, did you see the purchase at the tape on Friday?

Someone bought 150,000 shares @ 24.69

That’s $3,700,000 worth.

I always heard it’s a very good sign when you that happen in your favorite stock.

Hoping it’s an indicator it’s going a whole lot higher.

[creede]

“If the share price is close to the strike price around the expiration date, maybe that would be a time to announce some bad news and the price moves a little lower. “

Just thinking about this and don’t think that’s a realistic fear since it would be blatant stock manipulation.

I wish I could find that article about the analysis of dilution when warrants are converted.

Seems the main point was the mountain of cash on hand increases the book value of the company at about the same rate the dilution occurs. The result is typically a push. Who doesn’t love a company with a larger and larger supply of cash?

The math starts getting bad once the price of the commons gets too high above the strike (like >$20 or $30 if memory serves).

Time is short before the warrants expire, so what would be the realistic highest price SD could obtain before 10/04/2022?

I fantasize about hitting $50, but is that really possible in 4 months?

I remember you trying to console me near the end of the LMB debacle. Really appreciate it, and can say it really helped.

I’m going to do the best I to not let that happen again.

Is it tomorrow yet?