Historically, what was the shortest period of yield curve inversion without conventional definition of recession? And part B, what was the typical delta GDP and time period for GDP to go positive after a 1 year period of yield inversion?
My numbers are quite a bit lower. 2.25-2.75% FFR and 10-year T @ 3.5-4%. As I've said before, I think inflation is done - transitorish? There may be a recession on the way and the government punch bowl is removed for now. Also, the US$ is quite strong. I'll know more Wednesday morning. If core inflation does not begin to fall, I'll be surprised and have to reassess.
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