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Re: jbog post# 25884

Monday, 05/09/2022 2:21:01 PM

Monday, May 09, 2022 2:21:01 PM

Post# of 26939
Re: Softish landing

Thanks for replying, but I was hoping for more quantitative counterpoints to #msg-168786432. If people think my projections are off-base, I’d like to know what their projections are.

For convenience, this is what I posted in the comments section of the Barron’s article I referenced in #msg-168786432:

What is a "softish landing" (the Fed's latest pet phrase)? My definition, for the current cycle, is a peak 10y T-bond rate of 5% accompanied by a 7-8% Fed Funds rate—i.e. a strongly inverted yield curve—lasting for as long as a year or so. Anything less than the above won't be sufficient to bring inflation down to anywhere near 3% (let alone the Fed's "target" rate of 2%). Moreover, the above scenario need not be as disastrous for Wall Street and the overall economy as some people are predicting, even though those people's projections might look "softer" than mine on the surface.

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