Replies to post #197210 on DD Support Board and Research Team

[k9narc]

In 2021, you still had the "normal" American oil production but consumption was down over 10%.

Oil demand will now be driven by having to go to work and "Covid" freedom. That will increase demand.

Gas will hit 5.00 a gallon in the USA. Demand erosion will set in. People will start driving less.

Gas will hit 6.00 a gallon and signs of demand destruction will set in. Less pleasure drives and car pooling will become a thing again. At 7.00 a gallon, car owners start taking the bus.

Things have changed. Damn war ain't helping.

I'll make you a bet if that's allowed.



I'll give you 100-1 odds up to 10 plus1 coins.

By July 13th, gas will be $6.25 us gallon in NY State.

[jbsliverer]

I'm sure they are ramping it up. Maybe we ought to keep more oil and oil product of what we export. There is whole world system in place, and it doesn't just involve the US, and it's pretty involved, so changing around the system can't happen over night. They are definitely working on it intensely right now though.

As of the first half of 21, the amount of oil and oil products from in the US today is being EXPORTED out of the country more than we import by the tune of about 120,000 barrels a day over what we import. We also export more refined product than crude.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49596

The drilling rigs will be getting more active with the thousands and thousands of new oil drilling permits/leases that would be coming online down the road. We already have at last count in 2020, 936,934 producing oil wells down from over a million in 2014 due to lower oil prices with less rig activity right here in the US. Maybe the numbers are off a few and they don't all produce equally, but still equates to a crap load of oil and oil product produced in the US.


New Data: Biden’s First Year Drilling Permitting Stomps Trump’s By 34%

Thousands of Permits OK’d Despite President’s Authority to End Drilling by 2035

WASHINGTON— New federal data shows the Biden administration approved 3,557 permits for oil and gas drilling on public lands in its first year, far outpacing the Trump administration’s first-year total of 2,658.

Nearly 2,000 of the drilling permits were approved on public lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management’s New Mexico office, followed by 843 in Wyoming, 285 in Montana and North Dakota, and 191 in Utah. In California, the Biden administration approved 187 permits — more than twice the 71 drilling permits Trump approved in that state in his first year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/12/06/biden-is-approving-more-oil-gas-drilling-permits-public-lands-than-trump-analysis-finds/

https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/new-data-biden-slays-trumps-first-year-drilling-permitting-by-34-2022-01-21/

[Kool Aid Man]

Loss of Russian oil will hardly impact U.S. according to a friend in the industry. Russia has reportedly been providing the U.S. 209,000 b/d which supposedly equals 3% of >imports.< By comparison, we import 61% from Canada, 10% from Mexico, 6% Saudi Arabia, 3% Columbia (same as Russia), 2% Iraq and Ecuador, 13% from others.

In 2019 U.S. crude oil production hit a record high of 12.2 million b/d. Then, due to the pandemic, it fell by 8% in 2020, the largest annual decrease on record." https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47056

On 12/29/21 CNBC Daniel Yergin said the US is expected to produce roughly 12 million b/d in 2022 (my guess is it will be more more with prices skyrocketing)-- so basically a full recovery. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/30/us-oil-production-to-increase-further-in-2022-oil-expert-dan-yergin.html

If Russia has reportedly been providing us 209,000 b/d which supposedly equals 3% of >imports.< If my math is correct that means 1% of imports= 70,000. 100x 70k means we import 7 million b/d total from all countries??. So if we produce 12 million and import 7 (19 total) our reliance on Russia is likely minimal despite media hysteria (news needs generate drive ratings and revenues).

According to my friend with nearly 50 years in the industry

This price run up is pure bottom line profits! Biden needs to jump on the domestic producers to pump more! Damn news is creating a bigger problem than it is! Hell don't even have to punch new holes just rework the wells capped when oil was under $60! In some cases it just means turning on the pumpjacks in others it may require a bit more work but the oil is there! NO DRY HOLES to worry about, no need to put in tanks or pipelines ( which take time). Hell in many cases turning on a pump is just a few key strokes now or a couple guys humping it out to the field to crank some valves open then check for leaks. If using tanks you need some truck drivers to haul out the oil and brine from the tanks. It comes down to smaller producers to not get greedy and wait for $130 a barrel prices and take $110! Yup a tanker takes maybe 200 barrels ( 42 gallons at say 8 lbs a gallon times 200 or 66,400 lbs which some tankers able to carry 80,000 lbs so $20 a barrel difference works out to $4,000 more dollars a load) . But nobody is covering that! Jerry Jones and other "small" producers should be pumping like crazy right now! Yup, but we don't even need to drill just turn on pumpjacks. Turning on a pumpjack now can be done by a guy in the office in Irving for ExxonMobil! He just gets on his keyboard and boom pumpjack is on! Now if the wellhead has been shut down for a year or more they may have to send some roughnecks/field engineers out to tinker with it to get it going. Not like the 1970's when a crew had to drive up to each we'll head and start it up. They have pressure gauges, flow meters and more on these wells along with flow constrictors that are computer controlled. They were adding cell service technology pre 2000 to turn wells on and off. Hell back in the 80's when I worked for Motorola they had some wells on radio controlled systems then!
Texas used to have more constrictions over pumping back in the 70's which made Oil and Gas accounting a bitch of a course because you had to know what restrictions would apply on any given well to figure out profitability- some wells only would be profitable when they hit their monthly allotment! NAFTA comes into play- imports from Canada and Mexico covers a lot of our demands. Don't fall into the tar sands trap in a discussion, they are only a small part of Canada's exports and that crude needs extra refining.

I'm sure there are more parts to the equation. Russia will still supply China, N. Korea and a couple others. But European countries, Japan, S. Korea, India and others who honor sanctions will have to buy from other suppliers.

Additional info--

Short-Term Energy Outlook (a/o Feb 8, 2022)
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

Weekly Imports & Exports
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_w.htm

Texas Monthly Oil & Gas Production by Year
https://www.rrc.texas.gov/oil-and-gas/research-and-statistics/production-data/texas-monthly-oil-gas-production/

How would restrictions on Russian oil exports affect the US?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/how-much-oil-does-the-us-import-from-russia