DD Support Board and Research Team

[Kool Aid Man]

Loss of Russian oil will hardly impact U.S. according to a friend in the industry. Russia has reportedly been providing the U.S. 209,000 b/d which supposedly equals 3% of >imports.< By comparison, we import 61% from Canada, 10% from Mexico, 6% Saudi Arabia, 3% Columbia (same as Russia), 2% Iraq and Ecuador, 13% from others.

In 2019 U.S. crude oil production hit a record high of 12.2 million b/d. Then, due to the pandemic, it fell by 8% in 2020, the largest annual decrease on record." https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=47056

On 12/29/21 CNBC Daniel Yergin said the US is expected to produce roughly 12 million b/d in 2022 (my guess is it will be more more with prices skyrocketing)-- so basically a full recovery. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/30/us-oil-production-to-increase-further-in-2022-oil-expert-dan-yergin.html

If Russia has reportedly been providing us 209,000 b/d which supposedly equals 3% of >imports.< If my math is correct that means 1% of imports= 70,000. 100x 70k means we import 7 million b/d total from all countries??. So if we produce 12 million and import 7 (19 total) our reliance on Russia is likely minimal despite media hysteria (news needs generate drive ratings and revenues).

According to my friend with nearly 50 years in the industry

This price run up is pure bottom line profits! Biden needs to jump on the domestic producers to pump more! Damn news is creating a bigger problem than it is! Hell don't even have to punch new holes just rework the wells capped when oil was under $60! In some cases it just means turning on the pumpjacks in others it may require a bit more work but the oil is there! NO DRY HOLES to worry about, no need to put in tanks or pipelines ( which take time). Hell in many cases turning on a pump is just a few key strokes now or a couple guys humping it out to the field to crank some valves open then check for leaks. If using tanks you need some truck drivers to haul out the oil and brine from the tanks. It comes down to smaller producers to not get greedy and wait for $130 a barrel prices and take $110! Yup a tanker takes maybe 200 barrels ( 42 gallons at say 8 lbs a gallon times 200 or 66,400 lbs which some tankers able to carry 80,000 lbs so $20 a barrel difference works out to $4,000 more dollars a load) . But nobody is covering that! Jerry Jones and other "small" producers should be pumping like crazy right now! Yup, but we don't even need to drill just turn on pumpjacks. Turning on a pumpjack now can be done by a guy in the office in Irving for ExxonMobil! He just gets on his keyboard and boom pumpjack is on! Now if the wellhead has been shut down for a year or more they may have to send some roughnecks/field engineers out to tinker with it to get it going. Not like the 1970's when a crew had to drive up to each we'll head and start it up. They have pressure gauges, flow meters and more on these wells along with flow constrictors that are computer controlled. They were adding cell service technology pre 2000 to turn wells on and off. Hell back in the 80's when I worked for Motorola they had some wells on radio controlled systems then!
Texas used to have more constrictions over pumping back in the 70's which made Oil and Gas accounting a bitch of a course because you had to know what restrictions would apply on any given well to figure out profitability- some wells only would be profitable when they hit their monthly allotment! NAFTA comes into play- imports from Canada and Mexico covers a lot of our demands. Don't fall into the tar sands trap in a discussion, they are only a small part of Canada's exports and that crude needs extra refining.

I'm sure there are more parts to the equation. Russia will still supply China, N. Korea and a couple others. But European countries, Japan, S. Korea, India and others who honor sanctions will have to buy from other suppliers.

Additional info--

Short-Term Energy Outlook (a/o Feb 8, 2022)
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

Weekly Imports & Exports
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_w.htm

Texas Monthly Oil & Gas Production by Year
https://www.rrc.texas.gov/oil-and-gas/research-and-statistics/production-data/texas-monthly-oil-gas-production/

How would restrictions on Russian oil exports affect the US?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/how-much-oil-does-the-us-import-from-russia