Replies to post #13834 on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc (AUPH)

[Whalatane]

RMB. First off let me apologize for posting that link to a bogus twitter article. On a reread I caught the date and probably should have deleted the original post.
I was skeptical on AUPH until I saw the Kidney wk abstract for Voc in severe LN .
I typically stay away from Co's that have limited institutional ownership and high retail ownership for obvious reasons .
The Kidney wk abstract made me a buyer
Some background
Up to 20% of LN patients develop ESKD ( need for dialysis ) within a decade of SLE diagnosis .
Reduction in proteinuria ( UPCR ) , especially in the first yr is an important prognostic marker for progression to ESRD but up to 60% of LN patients are unable to achieve UPCR target within one yr
So obvious need for better treatment than SOC .
The problem with Voc is the cost ....Co guides at around $65K a yr , Medicare cites higher .

So I expect SOC is going to be prescribed initially on diagnosis and Voc will only be considered for those diagnosed with severe LN or relapse .
There will be strong motivation to prescribe for severe LN because the reduction in UPCR is quite dramatic.
These are the patients most at risk of progressing to ESRD ( dialysis ) and that now costs up to $120K a yr per patient ( Medicare )
So looking simply at the numbers ..its cost effective to get severe LN patients on Voc ...to prevent the dialysis costs ...no one can be denied dialysis
How many have severe LN ? I think the LN population is somewhere between 100,000 and 300,000 in the US .
If 10,000 of those develop /relapse / diagnose as severe LN x $65K per yr = $650m income ...just my quick take .

I think the BO interest is legit and AUPH would make a huge mistake if they tried to go it alone .
I also think there may be others Co's interested so AUPH may be shopping around .
I think the deal for MDCO took several weeks after the initial Bloomberg article on take over spec.

Re your other picks ...ran thru most of them . I have a small position in AXSM . BCRX is interesting but I wouldn't be in the others . Suggest you look at KOD ( Baker Bros now own about 28% of Co )...your wife might be interested in it also re her and my , eye problems . PGTX and CYTK are 2 other positions I'm also in .

I also have positions in Fintect / digital transformation etc ...UPST and DAWA you might consider to diversify out of biotech
Good luck
Kiwi