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07/25/21 1:21 PM
The NY Crude Oil Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 3 days closing above the previous session's high. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 3.36% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 7461, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Moreover, a lower opening and a penetration of today's low of 7139 with a closing beneath this level would suggest today's high will stand temporarily.
Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 7554 is forming a high. A break of this session's low of 7139 will warn that we have a potential temporary high in place. Our Stochastics are all pointing upward while our internal momentum models have also remained in a bullish posture.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2021. Prominently, we have elected one Bullish Reversal to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 7140 and overhead resistance forming above at 7296. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 5th at 7698, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 22nd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 7181. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 14 months since the low established back in April 2020.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5710 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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