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NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) - Temp High »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 17, 2021

NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7181 and is trading up about 48% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. Up to now, this market has been rising for 7 months going into July suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 7698 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 6641. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 7347.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2021. Clearly, we have elected one Bullish Reversal to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 7282 and support forming below at 7178. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 5th at 7698, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of March 22nd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.

Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 14 months since the low established back in April 2020.

Critical support still underlies this market at 5710 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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