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08/14/21 9:55 AM
NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 6844 and is trading up about 41% for the year from last year's settlement of 4852. Immediately, this market has been rising for 8 months going into August suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2020 moving into 2021. Prominently, we have elected one Bullish Reversal to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 6890 and support forming below at 6761. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of July 19th at 6501, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 5th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 6828. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2019 while the last low formed on 2020. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2020 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Interestingly, the NY Crude Oil Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 8 months since the low established back in November 2020.
Critical support still underlies this market at 5750 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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