Replies to post #339515 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Number sleven]

Hank, How would you value the company if the US market was intact?
Sleven,

[MateoPaisa]

Unfortunately, none of you are making any calculations or considerations for availability of product, which we had been led to believe many years ago is absolutely insufficient to supply the world. In this same vein, supply would also pretty significantly curtail much of China generic plans (and in other countries/continents)

[Abe1234]

Hey Hampky,
I am interested in your number, can you please elaborate a little more. Your number is listed below.
EU: $3B ($1.5b at 2x multiple)
China: $1B
USA: $0.6B (1x multiple of current sales)
ROW (Mainly Canada, ANZAC, Latam): $0.4B

We get $5B or around $11-12.
Why do you have 0.6 B for the U.S. We are doing about 0.6B a year already. Don’t we still have exclusivity for another 8 years here in the U.S for Trig<500, etc..
Year 1 – 0.6 B
Year 2- 0.6 B ( we are in this year now)
Year 3- 0.6 B
Year 4 -.5 B
And so on..
I would at least value U.S to be $1.5 B for sale. I agree with $3B, China $1B, ROW probably about $1B including middle east, Asia, Africa, oceana and south America.(Brazil is a huge market in Latin America).
I think we should be able to fetch atleast $6.5 B OR around.
Current market cap is $1.7 B and SP is $4.35. If we get sold for $6.5 B, the sp will be about $16.8. If we get sold for $5 B, the sp will be about $12.90. Either way, I will take either of these and walk away with my loses. I need the sp to be at least $18 just to break even..