Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[hamkypamky]

Few questions to the valuation:

1. Considering US sales are flat at $600m why would we take $3B for EU?
With a lot longer ramp up in EU as well even considering $2-$3B sales I don't know if a 3X multiple makes sense considering long ramp up is slower exclusivity.

2. China pricing will be much lower than USor EU and possible generic threat much much sooner if it hits blockbuster status.
Our partner Eddingpharm is also a small player unlike Fosun so the likelihood of it going blockbuster is questionable

3. ROW with Japan out, probably only going yo see some benefit from Canada and ANZAC

My own estimate:

EU: $3B ($1.5b at 2x multiple)
China: $1B
USA: $0.6B (1x multiple of current sales)
ROW (Mainly Canada, ANZAC, Latam): $0.4B

We get $5B or around $11-12.