Replies to post #362943 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[trocprofit]

I've always been bullish on the science and bearish on the mgmt. I agree that in theory the buildout is positive. Just always have that bit of doubt due to past missteps. I haven't sold and sometimes wish I traded the rollercoaster once in a while, but here I am.

[HappyLibrarian]

Who gets the manufacturing capacity NWBO is bankrolling if NWBO goes bankrupt? As long as you know the answer to that question and the answer is “No one connected with Linda Powers” then what you are saying is probably true.

I do not know the answer which is why I am asking.

[Just The Facts Jack]

No one would create this buildout and hire 150 people with failed results.

Why would you say that? There are several reasons why this statement is not necessarily true:

1) The fact is they have to do this buildout. It is a requirement of the approval process. They have no choice if they want to have any chance at approval, regardless of whether or not the Phase 3 trial was successful.
2) There's a good chance that Advent is just Cognate Part Deux. Just as she built up Cognate and sold it off, she could easily do the same with Advent. I think that $875 million Cognate sale to CRL definitely got her attention. She's done it once before, so there's good reason to think she's getting ready to do it again. I think that $875 million would be enough for even her to retire on.
3) If the trial failed and they know it, then it's entirely possible that manufacturing could be LP's future business model. There has been a lot of speculation about this in the past, and for all we know this is the plan. As we've seen with Cognate, it certainly has potential to be a very lucrative business model. Of course, NWBO shareholders would be left holding the bag.

I think that looking at the Advent moves and assuming trial success is a big mistake.