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smith199

02/20/21 11:11 PM

#4589 RE: spec machine #4587

“Any updates from the South?” In my area things are looking up. I was comfortable, less fortunate suffered greatly.

Renewables took it on the chin, deservedly so. Thank goodness we were not all running around in Electric Vehicles (EV) at least you can sit in an Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICE) to get warm (radiator water) and charge your IPhone or IPad. EVs generate no heat they actually use a “space heater” that will discharge the battery quicker, and without power you can’t recharge.

Texas was in a bind because 24% of their power comes from Wind and roughly 50% of that was down. Losing 12% of the power generated in Texas was a big deal during a time for peak demand.

In my opinion, having renewables as the primary source with gas as the backup is backwards.

Weakness in renewables has been exposed. When temperatures are 7 degrees Fahrenheit at 2 a.m. the wind is not blowing and there is no solar energy being created by the sun. Where are you getting your power from? Coal, nuclear and gas.

Excerpt 1 from the ‘API’ American Petroleum Institute ‘Monthly Statistical Report’ published 2/18/2021
• Total U.S. petroleum demand returned to within 1.2% of its level from January 2020 despite the pandemic;
• Refining and petrochemical demand for other oils – naphtha, gasoil, propane/propylene reached a record-
high level (6.5 million barrels per day, mb/d) and 33.1% share of total U.S. petroleum demand; and,
• The lowest U.S. crude oil imports for January since 1992 propelled U.S. petroleum net exports.
The 6.5 mb/d of other oils in refining and petrochemicals exceeded its previous monthly record (from Dec. 2020) by 0.7 mb/d and reflected an increased need for packaging and medical plastics as well as a seasonal rise in propane heating demand. Distillates/diesel fuel demand also exceeded its year-ago level, but motor gasoline, jet fuel and residual fuel oil each decreased year-on-year by double-digit percentages. Even though there has been fuel substitution through the pandemic, the return of total petroleum demand to within 1.2% of its pre-COVID- 19 levels reinforces how economic growth and oil demand have continued to go hand-in-hand.

Excerpt 2 from the API ‘Monthly Statistical Report’
Demand:
• U.S. petroleum demand (19.7 mb/d) neared its pre-COVID-19 levels.
– Gasoline demand decreased despite an apparent monthly increase in urban commuting.
– Distillate demand exceeded its pre-COVID-19 level.
– Jet fuel deliveries decreased along with air travel.
– Weakest residual fuel oil deliveries for January on record.
– Other oils’ record-highs for demand (6.5 mb/d) and share of total U.S. petroleum demand (33.1%).
Prices and Macroeconomy:
• Crude oil and gasoline prices rose; the Brent-WTI spread narrowed.
• Mixed leading economic indicators – industrial gains but consumer sentiment weakness.
Supply:
• Solid U.S. production of crude oil (11.1 mb/d) and natural gas liquids (5.1 mb/d).
International Trade:
• U.S. petroleum net exports for 7th consecutive month on lowest crude oil imports for January since 1992.
Industry Operations:
• Refinery activity increased for the third consecutive month.
Inventories:
• Inventories of crude oil receded, but products rose.


API Monthly Statistical Report Link Below:
https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/News/2021/02/Monthly_Statistical_Report_January_2021.pdf


A few thought provoking articles linked below from the EIA.gov this week:

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46836

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46776

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46757


The 3:2:1 Crack Spread $/bbl LLS Gulfcoast down 7.5% at $9.25, but still indicating a positive solid spread for the Refining Companies (Source EIA.gov)

Crude Oil Inventories fell by 7.3 million barrels from week earlier 2/12/2021. WTI and Brent are down and slightly flustered from it’s weekly highs of $$62/bbl and $65.38, respectively.
$59.24/bbl WTI “December Contract” 1 day delay
$62.91/bbl Brent “December Contract” 23 hour delay

Wholesale Spot Crude Prices at Close 2/20/2021:
$60.40/bbl WTI
$64.09/bbl Brent
$62.65/bbl LLS


Mrs. Smith

smith199

02/21/21 10:01 AM

#4590 RE: spec machine #4587

GOM Offshore Rig Count declined by 1 Rig the week ending February 19, 2021.

Total Rig Count at 16 for US GOM-federal OCS, one year ago this time it was at 22. Weekly Rig Count Update report link below:

http://www.dnr.louisiana.gov/assets/TAD/data/drill_weekly/WeeklyRigCountUpdate.pdf

There were 12 approvals for ‘APD’ Application for Permit to Drill the week of Feb 14th through Feb 19th. 3 of the 12 applications were approved this past Friday, February 19th.
2 of those 3 approvals were for shallow water (Arena Offshore and Contango Operators). One of the biggest if not the biggest GOM shallow water drillers, Arena Offshore LP appears to be strong right out of the gates from their Chapter 11 in 2020, considering the current oil and gas situation.

The recent February 2021 BSEE APD approvals for Arena reflect 5 new spud dates commencing the 1st through the 2nd quarter of 2021, so yes, I think we are getting there slowly but surely.

Gulfslope’s cash position is way more favorable by around 2.5 million dollars than it was the last quarter of 2017 when they signed on Delek Group as a new Partner in the Tau Prospect. Prior to Delek coming on board GSPE’s share price was hovering around $0.02 very similar as it is today.

Delek Group seems to be pulling through this Oil and Gas crisis intact. The rest of Delek’s Long Series Bonds are not coming due until 2022, their bank debt is look way more appealing, they have equity offerings on the horizon for Delek Drilling and Ithaca Energy, and Delek Group’s Credit Rating was recently upgraded.

“Onward and Upward” my friends,


Mrs. Smith