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Re: spec machine post# 4587

Saturday, 02/20/2021 11:11:15 PM

Saturday, February 20, 2021 11:11:15 PM

Post# of 7854
“Any updates from the South?” In my area things are looking up. I was comfortable, less fortunate suffered greatly.

Renewables took it on the chin, deservedly so. Thank goodness we were not all running around in Electric Vehicles (EV) at least you can sit in an Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICE) to get warm (radiator water) and charge your IPhone or IPad. EVs generate no heat they actually use a “space heater” that will discharge the battery quicker, and without power you can’t recharge.

Texas was in a bind because 24% of their power comes from Wind and roughly 50% of that was down. Losing 12% of the power generated in Texas was a big deal during a time for peak demand.

In my opinion, having renewables as the primary source with gas as the backup is backwards.

Weakness in renewables has been exposed. When temperatures are 7 degrees Fahrenheit at 2 a.m. the wind is not blowing and there is no solar energy being created by the sun. Where are you getting your power from? Coal, nuclear and gas.

Excerpt 1 from the ‘API’ American Petroleum Institute ‘Monthly Statistical Report’ published 2/18/2021
• Total U.S. petroleum demand returned to within 1.2% of its level from January 2020 despite the pandemic;
• Refining and petrochemical demand for other oils – naphtha, gasoil, propane/propylene reached a record-
high level (6.5 million barrels per day, mb/d) and 33.1% share of total U.S. petroleum demand; and,
• The lowest U.S. crude oil imports for January since 1992 propelled U.S. petroleum net exports.
The 6.5 mb/d of other oils in refining and petrochemicals exceeded its previous monthly record (from Dec. 2020) by 0.7 mb/d and reflected an increased need for packaging and medical plastics as well as a seasonal rise in propane heating demand. Distillates/diesel fuel demand also exceeded its year-ago level, but motor gasoline, jet fuel and residual fuel oil each decreased year-on-year by double-digit percentages. Even though there has been fuel substitution through the pandemic, the return of total petroleum demand to within 1.2% of its pre-COVID- 19 levels reinforces how economic growth and oil demand have continued to go hand-in-hand.

Excerpt 2 from the API ‘Monthly Statistical Report’
Demand:
• U.S. petroleum demand (19.7 mb/d) neared its pre-COVID-19 levels.
– Gasoline demand decreased despite an apparent monthly increase in urban commuting.
– Distillate demand exceeded its pre-COVID-19 level.
– Jet fuel deliveries decreased along with air travel.
– Weakest residual fuel oil deliveries for January on record.
– Other oils’ record-highs for demand (6.5 mb/d) and share of total U.S. petroleum demand (33.1%).
Prices and Macroeconomy:
• Crude oil and gasoline prices rose; the Brent-WTI spread narrowed.
• Mixed leading economic indicators – industrial gains but consumer sentiment weakness.
Supply:
• Solid U.S. production of crude oil (11.1 mb/d) and natural gas liquids (5.1 mb/d).
International Trade:
• U.S. petroleum net exports for 7th consecutive month on lowest crude oil imports for January since 1992.
Industry Operations:
• Refinery activity increased for the third consecutive month.
Inventories:
• Inventories of crude oil receded, but products rose.


API Monthly Statistical Report Link Below:
https://www.api.org/-/media/Files/News/2021/02/Monthly_Statistical_Report_January_2021.pdf


A few thought provoking articles linked below from the EIA.gov this week:

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46836

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46776

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46757


The 3:2:1 Crack Spread $/bbl LLS Gulfcoast down 7.5% at $9.25, but still indicating a positive solid spread for the Refining Companies (Source EIA.gov)

Crude Oil Inventories fell by 7.3 million barrels from week earlier 2/12/2021. WTI and Brent are down and slightly flustered from it’s weekly highs of $$62/bbl and $65.38, respectively.
$59.24/bbl WTI “December Contract” 1 day delay
$62.91/bbl Brent “December Contract” 23 hour delay

Wholesale Spot Crude Prices at Close 2/20/2021:
$60.40/bbl WTI
$64.09/bbl Brent
$62.65/bbl LLS


Mrs. Smith