Replies to post #298664 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[tootalljones]

this one indication makes avxl a 30+ dollar stock, and further vindicates their theory. Think about the ramifications to their product in a pipeline for the larger indications....

[vg_future]

NWDR, okay, thanks. I understand that you are doing yearly 24K. I was talking about the EPS (80 cents) which seems like quarterly and the stock as a multiple of that.......@ 20 PE, price of $16
On yearly calculation, the EPS will be $3.20...@ 20 PE, the price will be $64. I think this is what is typically used for company valuation (maybe they will use a lower PE..say 10, even then the price will be $32).

Anyway, I am glad that even at a conservative approach, the price levels that Anavex could reach are mind boggling. Appreciate the numbers that you have put together.

-vg_future

[falconer66a]

Disregard these calculations.

Below, I've hypothesized some potential annual sales revenues, should blarcamesine someday be approved for generalized use as an anti-aging prophylactic, a mini-aspirin, as it were (as Dr. Missling alluded to in the conference call).

First, should any of this work out, come to medical practice, the revenue streams to Anavex Life Sciences Corp are many years on out. Not the kind of thing that should guide the taking of an AVXL ownership position right now. There are lots of more relevant and controlling other data on that presently available for intelligent investments in AVXL equity positions. Nonetheless, ponder the numbers I post below.

The first presumption in my metrics is that blarcamesine will prove to be both utterly safe (like aspirin) and very successful in preventing or slowing the geriatric (older-age) onset of a diversity of diseases and conditions. Therefore, the drug (in this hypothetical scenario) will be universally prescribed to everyone at the age of 50, to be taken continually (without interruption) each day. With that, the health of people aging past 50 greatly and sustainably improves.

Let's confine the numbers to just the U.S. Global sales can be calculated later.

Let's presume (very conservatively) that the U.S. population will be 300 million. Then, with a convenient off-hand determination (probably incorrect) I'll presume that one-third of those, 100 million, will be 50 years or older; and would be taking a dose of blarcamesine each day.

How much, then, would a daily dose of prophylactic blarcamesine cost, either by the patients themselves, or their health insurance companies? Who knows? But let's be very conservative, and presume it will be a bit over dollar a day coming to Anavex Life Sciences, averaging out to a per patient annual cost of $500. That's $1.37 a day for each dose.

Next, I'll presume that fabrication and distribution costs are, conveniently, $0.37 per day per dose. That's a dollar a day from each of the 100 million blarcamesine users in the U.S. as profit margin.

100,000,000 users x 365 days x $1.00 profit margin gives a total continuing annual income to Anavex Life Sciences of $36.5 billion dollars.

If the company had 100 million shares in circulation (66.96 million shares presently are in issue), that would be $365 of cleared sales revenue for each AVXL share. Use your own Price to Earnings Ratio to calculate, then, a probable AVXL share price.

Of course, these revenue numbers may be off by a half or a quarter, two to four times larger.

Then, try to plug in global sales. Multiples of any of the above.

Blarcamesine, a new 21st-century aspirin? Let's see. Very possible.