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Friday, February 12, 2021 3:56:40 PM
Below, I've hypothesized some potential annual sales revenues, should blarcamesine someday be approved for generalized use as an anti-aging prophylactic, a mini-aspirin, as it were (as Dr. Missling alluded to in the conference call).
First, should any of this work out, come to medical practice, the revenue streams to Anavex Life Sciences Corp are many years on out. Not the kind of thing that should guide the taking of an AVXL ownership position right now. There are lots of more relevant and controlling other data on that presently available for intelligent investments in AVXL equity positions. Nonetheless, ponder the numbers I post below.
The first presumption in my metrics is that blarcamesine will prove to be both utterly safe (like aspirin) and very successful in preventing or slowing the geriatric (older-age) onset of a diversity of diseases and conditions. Therefore, the drug (in this hypothetical scenario) will be universally prescribed to everyone at the age of 50, to be taken continually (without interruption) each day. With that, the health of people aging past 50 greatly and sustainably improves.
Let's confine the numbers to just the U.S. Global sales can be calculated later.
Let's presume (very conservatively) that the U.S. population will be 300 million. Then, with a convenient off-hand determination (probably incorrect) I'll presume that one-third of those, 100 million, will be 50 years or older; and would be taking a dose of blarcamesine each day.
How much, then, would a daily dose of prophylactic blarcamesine cost, either by the patients themselves, or their health insurance companies? Who knows? But let's be very conservative, and presume it will be a bit over dollar a day coming to Anavex Life Sciences, averaging out to a per patient annual cost of $500. That's $1.37 a day for each dose.
Next, I'll presume that fabrication and distribution costs are, conveniently, $0.37 per day per dose. That's a dollar a day from each of the 100 million blarcamesine users in the U.S. as profit margin.
100,000,000 users x 365 days x $1.00 profit margin gives a total continuing annual income to Anavex Life Sciences of $36.5 billion dollars.
If the company had 100 million shares in circulation (66.96 million shares presently are in issue), that would be $365 of cleared sales revenue for each AVXL share. Use your own Price to Earnings Ratio to calculate, then, a probable AVXL share price.
Of course, these revenue numbers may be off by a half or a quarter, two to four times larger.
Then, try to plug in global sales. Multiples of any of the above.
Blarcamesine, a new 21st-century aspirin? Let's see. Very possible.
Recent AVXL News
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 5th Annual Neuro Perspectives Virtual Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 06/20/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/17/2024 11:30:10 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences Announces Expansion of Leadership Team • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/22/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/17/2024 10:01:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 2nd BioConnect Investor Conference at NASDAQ • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/14/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Shareholders that lost money on Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) Urged to Join Class Action - Contact The Gross Law Firm to Learn More • PR Newswire (US) • 05/10/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 08:35:55 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/09/2024 12:00:30 PM
- Anavex Life Sciences Reports Fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results and Provides Business Update • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/09/2024 11:30:00 AM
- The Gross Law Firm Announces the Filing of a Securities Class Action on Behalf of Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) Shareholders • PR Newswire (US) • 05/07/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Form DEFA14A - Additional definitive proxy soliciting materials and Rule 14(a)(12) material • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/06/2024 10:03:33 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences Corporation Sued for Securities Law Violations - Contact The Gross Law Firm Before May 13, 2024 to Discuss Your Rights - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 05/03/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Announce Fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Financial Results on Thursday, May 9th, 2024 • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 05/02/2024 11:30:00 AM
- May 13, 2024 Deadline: Contact The Gross Law Firm to Join Class Action Suit Against AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/26/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Contact The Gross Law Firm by May 13, 2024 Deadline to Join Class Action Against Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) • PR Newswire (US) • 04/19/2024 09:45:00 AM
- The Gross Law Firm Reminds Shareholders of a Lead Plaintiff Deadline of May 13, 2024 in Anavex Life Sciences Lawsuit - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/16/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Class Action Filed Against Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) - May 13, 2024 Deadline to Join - Contact The Gross Law Firm • PR Newswire (US) • 04/12/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the Noble Capital Markets Virtual Healthcare Equity Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 04/11/2024 11:30:00 AM
- Class Action Filed Against Anavex Life Sciences Corporation (AVXL) - May 13, 2024 Deadline to Join - Contact The Gross Law Firm • PR Newswire (US) • 04/09/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences Corporation Class Action: The Gross Law Firm Reminds Anavex Life Sciences Investors of the Pending Class Action Lawsuit with a Lead Plaintiff Deadline of May 13, 2024 - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/05/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Shareholders that lost money on Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) should contact The Gross Law Firm about pending Class Action - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 04/02/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Lost Money on Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL)? Join Class Action Suit Seeking Recovery - Contact The Gross Law Firm • PR Newswire (US) • 03/29/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Investors who lost money on Anavex Life Sciences Corporation(AVXL) should contact The Gross Law Firm about pending Class Action - AVXL • PR Newswire (US) • 03/26/2024 09:45:00 AM
- Anavex Life Sciences to Present at the 23rd Annual Needham Virtual Healthcare Conference • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 03/25/2024 11:30:00 AM
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