Replies to post #293504 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[mike_dotcom]

"I think Anavex is already worth close to $6.7B." No, Anavex is worth approximately 363 million. Probably less tomorrow.

[nidan7500]

Anavex will have to show more significant efficacy to get approval with their smaller, ongoing P3 trial, but is that so unlikely? Net Net... I think Anavex is already worth close to $6.7B. Clearly more than $20B with a win. Possibly much more. And they have multiple studies in their pipeline including some other very large markets. The Rett studies are not significant markets, but they are 1) Very nice things to do 2) Easy paths to approval 3)Any approvals would probably lubricate the approval process for other indications... probably part of strategy. But I should not speak for Missling. I will say, he appears to be the real deal. He appears to me to be a genius regarding funding, IP, chosen trials, trial protocols, and timing. He is a blessing if these drugs are real and they very well might be.

Thanks for this post. Agree w/line of reasoning and would add a time consideration to AVXL selection for , WHAT'S NEXT??? And WHY?

I suggest, it's all about time. How long will it take and to what degree will subjects respond to AVXL treatments? recall, we have read here often on the long (15 years+) gestation period for full blown PD. My read is that progress has been made and results support-indicate progress but we have a long time to wait for true-solid BIGLY evidence of Restoration and Regeneration. Recall we have an UPSTREAM MOA, if it takes anywhere as long to show measurable progress then MJFF is waiting based on results so far, but Restoration and Regeneration in adults is like watching paint dry. How that can be accelerated is undetermined at this point.

But, the RSD kids do not have this long process of gradual dysfunction to work with. (They are fine when born but then develop symptoms w/in months after some point) Hence (according to my thinking) the kids may just bounce back sooner w/same MOA for RSD symptoms. Kind of simple minded but there it is. MJFF must wait longer b/c the restoration and regeneration processes for PD-PDD is much, much slower.

IMO, this simple fact explains why Dr.M. pushed for RSD early on in his rollout plans. He believes and will prove that the AVXL MOA claims will manifest differently for different indications. IMO. It's all good, NOT SIMPLE BUT GOOD. IMO, AD MOA timeline is somewhere in the middle but is easier to monitor and measure w/a wider range of precision variables. Easier to get a pile of observation data, which increases confidence levels of pathway success.

ALL IMO.

[plexrec]

Doktor--" and no PR on those results is a little concerning, but I trust MJFF more than any PR anyway."--nice post--I see you are new here on this board--welcome--interesting to see your views--I also would like to hear some news of the early trial participants--how they are progressing etc. IMO we have the real goods here--taking time to pan out but our day will come !!!!!

[boi568]

6.7B is an oddly specific number.

[Pazzo1212]

Get stat significant results from the 450 participant AD trial, partners will be knocking down Missling’s door and we’ll see the $20B market cap. That’s what I’m waiting for...

Positive Rett results will deem 2-73 as a CNS platform drug, and add to the excitement that we have a winner for several indications.

The other indications will then go much much faster with tons of resources and backing.