Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Doktornolittle]

MJFF recent $1M funding of a 273 study coincides with extended study results from the first small group of Alz patients. It appears that MJFF wanted those long term study results before going further. Appearances can be deceiving... and no PR on those results is a little concerning, but I trust MJFF more than any PR anyway. It is possible that the long term continuation study only showed that 273 did no harm... and maybe that is all MJFF needed to know to move forward, but even if so; if that was good enough for MJFF to move, then it is very likely enough to spark further interest from others. And those results may have shown much more than safety, though such a small group is not super meaningful, but that depends on how you view it. That lack of SSN might be the only reason they did not PR the results. Would be nice to know though. A lot has changed over the last few years. Trials have expanded and IP has matured. The Ph2/3 for Alz is almost fully enrolled at this point. To gauge the value of an Alz pill, recall the drop in Biogen's market cap after their 3/21/2019 announcement that they were discontinuing their ongoing P3 study on Aducanumab (because it didnt work). The market cap dropped $17B that day and another $4B over the next few days to a week. Just the possibility of that drug getting approved was valued at $20B by the market. That study had 1638 participants, however, much larger than Anavex's current P2/3 with 450 participants. With such a large patient group, Biogen did not have to show much efficacy to win approval, yet they conceded they could not even do that. Anavex will have to show more significant efficacy to get approval with their smaller, ongoing P3 trial, but is that so unlikely? Net Net... I think Anavex is already worth close to $6.7B. Clearly more than $20B with a win. Possibly much more. And they have multiple studies in their pipeline including some other very large markets. The Rett studies are not significant markets, but they are 1) Very nice things to do 2) Easy paths to approval 3)Any approvals would probably lubricate the approval process for other indications... probably part of strategy. But I should not speak for Missling. I will say, he appears to be the real deal. He appears to me to be a genius regarding funding, IP, chosen trials, trial protocols, and timing. He is a blessing if these drugs are real and they very well might be.


https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02484547?term=aducanumab&cond=Alzheimer+Disease&draw=2&rank=4