Replies to post #21948 on Cycle Trading

[No-Quarter]

...and if you believe in any of this;




Might I suggest to start a position in MARA at the next pullback.

GLTY

[Duma]

You have no idea what a big question asking for my suggestion is. You also have no idea how timely your question is since I have invested easily over 30 hours in analysis over the past week concerning my investments managed by others.

I agree completely with Tobias. My wife and I have been discussing all weekend about what to do when the crash comes, and it is coming.

First a little background on me. In 1999 I had retired and my wife and I were both trading stocks. We were making so much money it was scary. I knew nothing about investing, but it didn't matter because anything we bought went up. We eventually got concerned the market was over valued, so we starting pulling lots of money out and investing in real estate. In the end we lost more than we expected before we got out, but our net was still very good. However we were so shook by what had happened and the pressure that we were under, that we turned all of our money over to a money manager.

Over the years I have started trading again but at a much smaller amount. I trade 3 accounts. On this board I generally only talk about #1 and #2. My #3 account is my long term account and I trade it very conservatively. I have grown it to a bigger size than sometimes I am comfortable trading, but I am doing it. Basically, all I want to do is come close to the S&P and not drop 50% if there is a full blown pb. The S&P has gained on the average 13.7% for the last 10 yrs, which means just parking money in SPY would be up 3.6x.

I am still fully invested in this account, but I have charts that will start to take me out somewhere around -20%. By -40% I would expect to be fully out. That may not sound good to you but money managers will tell you to never get out, because market timing is not possible. It is, but when you are dealing with a pretty large sum, the pressure is intense and sharp V recovery can be very expensive.

I fully expect this pullback to match what happened in the 30's. A 75% drop would not surprise me. The days of B&H are gone, so everybody, just like me, will start selling at some point and that will just drive the market down more.

So I have not been happy with my financial advisor for a few years, but his performance in 2020 was so bad, that I feel I have to do something different. He will never agree to pulling money out of the market so we could be at an impasse. Nor do I expect him to do some other things I want him to do.

So back to you, even though I think the market is going to crash, I don’t seen any reason to get out until it starts. 2020 has started out with a bang.

I seldom short the market, but I do have a lot more experience now and if I see a good Wave 3 setup, I will be tempted to do it. I like to keep things simple, so for me I will just use SPXS and/or SQQQ. In my opinion those two will give me all the juice I need. I sure you will find funds that maybe more aggressive, but is it really worth the risk?

Below is a chart that I created years ago and have shared many times on this board. It has only triggered twice in 20 years, 2001 and 2008. Maybe it can be of some help to you. It came close in 2016, but the market had already bottomed by the time the sell signal came. Note it did not trigger in 2020, primarily because the dip came too fast. A real market crash takes several months to develop. I hope our next crash also takes some time to develop. The 2020 crash was a -33% one, and I have to admit, I was very close to starting to sell even without my weekly chart signal. You for sure will hear me talking about it, when the time comes.

[Duma]

Still holding GBTC & MARA (...and BOIL). Now upside down on AGQ and GDXU, but believe these will come roaring back soon.

I had the same thing happen Fri to me on GLD. But I saw the drop coming and set up my stop before I left the house before the market opened. I also fully expect it to come back, but I don't care, I have moved on. If my charts say sell, I sell.

You may do fine and I hope you do, but I just don't trade that way.