Replies to post #286448 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Fireman02360]

Institutional investors aren't going to pay full price for their shares when a stock like AVXL is so easy to hammer down with maybe $5-$10mm of capital.

Finally, someone hitting "the head nail on the head" in regards to the sharp move down to that $4.50 area, only to SHARPLY reverse to the 4.90s in a matter of 1 hour under decent buy-side volume.

Good post Gator.

-Fireman

[jimmy667]

Good post and i agree except it does not take $5 mil to 10 mil of capital to hammer down. Just 50 to 100k long shares wash traded 100s of times a day with HFT algos. They can also hammer it up. Over time the price reverts to the mean of the channel of the VWAP based on fundamental risk/reward valuation in the estimation of the composite of the shareholders. This of course fluctuates over time dependent on fundamental developments. The effect of the smoke and mirrors on the vertical price action by HF wash trading is designed to fool other market participants in to thinking the fundamentals have changed so they end up selling to cheap or buying to expensive.
Hence mean regression channel theory. When fundamentals meaningfully change the slope of the channel will change and there could be a reset to a different VWAP on a longer term time variable. HFT can only control the vertical axis and price will revert to the mean on the time axis.

[Steady_T]

If you are correct Anavex just got more institutional backing and that's a good thing.

The other thing you are saying that I missed is that the Evercore conference represents a much higher quality venue than the previous conferences Anavex attended.