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11/21/20 3:23 PM
NY Crude Oil Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 4242 is immediately trading down about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. At the moment, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in November is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 4306 and it has broken last month's low falling to 3364 while it is still trading above last month's high of 4190.
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.
This market is still holding positive on the yearly level of our indicating models trading between overhead system resistance and underlying support. It remains in a bearish position on the quarter models warning it is not breaking out to the upside right now. The monthly is negative for now and the short-term weekly is positive. The market has dropped making a new low on the monthly level during October.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 4219.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 9th at 4306, which was up from the week of November 2nd. We have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 6.758% in a stark panic type decline.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 9th has exceeded the previous high of 4190 made back during the week of October 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 3364 made the week of November 2nd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.
Interestingly, the NY Natural Gas Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 4 months since the low established back in June.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 4378 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during August. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6565 back during January. Critical support still underlies this market at 1804 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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