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11/28/20 10:43 AM
NY Crude Oil Futures closed above our indicating ranges on the Daily level. The market closing today at 4553 is immediately trading down about 25% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. Up to this moment in time, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in November is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 4626 and it has broken last month's low falling to 3364 while it is still trading above last month's high of 4190.
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. Clearly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.
This market is still holding positive on the yearly level of our indicating models trading between overhead system resistance and underlying support. It remains in a bearish position on the quarter models warning it is not breaking out to the upside right now. The monthly is negative for now and the short-term weekly is positive. The market has dropped making a new low on the monthly level during October yet on the weekly level the market has continued to rally exceeding the previous week's high.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 4520.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 23rd at 4626, which was up 3 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 4626 to 4229. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 23rd reaching 4626 has exceeded the previous high of 4190 made back during the week of October 19th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
Interestingly, the NY Natural Gas Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 4 months since the low established back in June.
The market is trading some 3.99% percent above the last high 4378 from which we did originally obtain three sell signals from that event established during August. Long-Term critical support still underlies this market at 1804 and only a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a break of the current uptrend. At this time, the market is holding and is trading above last month's high as well.
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