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NY Crude Oil Futures - New Pattern Forming

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DiscoverGold   Saturday, 11/14/20 10:00:05 AM
Re: DiscoverGold post# 4973
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NY Crude Oil Futures - New Pattern Forming »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 14, 2020

Quote:
The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 4013 is immediately trading down about 34% for the year from last year's settlement of 6106. Up to this moment in time, this market has been declining for 3 months. This price action here in November is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 4306 and it has broken last month's low falling to 3364 while it is still trading above last month's close of 3579.

The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2016 moving into 2020. Clearly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 3941 and overhead resistance forming above at 4045. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 9th at 4306, which was up fromthe week of November 2nd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 4306 to 3716. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 9th reaching 4306 has exceeded the previous high of 4190 made back during the week of October 19th. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 3957. Additional support is to be found at 3663. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.

Interestingly, the NY Natural Gas Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 4 months since the low established back in June.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 4378 was important given we did obtain three sell signals from that event established during August. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 6565 back during January. Critical support still underlies this market at 1804 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.



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