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11/08/20 10:29 AM
The Oil & Gas Stock Index closing today at 57670 is immediately trading down about 54% for the year from last year's settlement of 127055. This price action here in November is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.
The historical perspective in the Oil & Gas Stock Index included a rally from 2003 moving into a major high for 2014, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2016 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 86847. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 01/01 from 2014, which tends to warn that the 2014 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Nonetheless, the bounce since the 2016 low has been unable as yet to make any new high. Noticeably, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date.
The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2018.This market is still holding positive on our yearly indicating models with overhead system resistance and underlying system support, it remains in a negative poisition on all other levels from the quarterly down to weekly. In fact, the quarter models are in a bearish position with important overhead system resistance whereas we also remain is a bearish position on the monthly and weekly levels.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Oil & Gas Stock Index, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 59197 and support forming below at 57576. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of October 26th at 52959, which was down 11 weeks from the high made back during the week of August 10th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of October 26th, which has been a move of .1193%.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for two months. Since that low, however, we have consolidated for 7 months. Meanwhile, the past seven months has witnessed a rally of 44% percent. A month-end closing below 1154 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 1298 to maintain a near-term upward rally.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 95630 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during June. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 129844 back during January. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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