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11/22/20 12:22 PM
The Oil & Gas Stock Index closing today at 73285 is immediately trading down about 42% for the year from last year's settlement of 127055. This price action here in November is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 75292 intraday and is still trading above that high of 63677.
The historical perspective in the Oil & Gas Stock Index included a rally from 2003 moving into a major high for 2014, from which the market has been in a bearish trend since then moving into the low in 2016 forming a reactionary trend of 2 years bottoming at 86847. Even so, we have not elected any Yearly Bearish Reversal to date from the turning point of 01/01 from 2014, which tends to warn that the 2014 high could still be challenged until we elect a Yearly Bearish Reversal. Nonetheless, the bounce since the 2016 low has been unable as yet to make any new high. Distinctly, we have elected two Bullish Reversals to date. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bearish at the close of 2018.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the Oil & Gas Stock Index, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 71355 and overhead resistance forming above at 73756. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of November 16th at 75292, which was up 3 weeks from the low made back during the week of October 26th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 75292 to 71231. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of November 16th reaching 75292 has exceeded the previous high of 63677 made back during the week of October 5th. Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see a correction from the key high of January for two months. Since that low made in March, the market has rallied for 7 months. Meanwhile, the past seven months has witnessed a rally of 44% percent. A month-end closing below 1154 will warn that the market is losing its upward momentum and should retest support below. It will take generally a monthly closing above 1298 to maintain a near-term upward rally.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 95630 was important given we did obtain four sell signals from that event established during June. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 129844 back during January. This warns that the trend is weak moving forward. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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